Did breakthrough in US fentanyl crisis start in China?
As Donald Trump travels to Beijing this week, fentanyl – and China’s role in its supply chain – remains an enduring point of acrimony in bilateral relations.At a UN meeting in March, the US again accused China of failing to stop its chemical industry selling the precursors required to make the potent synthetic opioid, while China suggested the US was shifting the blame for its domestic drug problem.Yet there are growing signs that the US fentanyl crisis has turned a corner – and some experts believe that interventions made in China have played a key role.“There was a supply shock: the purity of fentanyl fell,” said Keith Humphreys, a professor at Stanford University.“The question is why was there a supply shock.
And most indicators point to China.”On returning to the White House, Trump made fentanyl a foreign policy priority and quickly designated the criminal groups trafficking it as foreign terrorist organisations while slapping tariffs on countries involved in its supply chain – including China, the main source of fentanyl precursors, many of which are basic chemicals with legitimate uses.But by the summer of 2023 – during the Biden administration – overdose deaths at the national level had already begun to fall.By November 2025, they were down by more than a third.Investigators are still trying to unpick the factors behind the fall, but one theory put forward by Humphreys and his co-authors in a recent study published by Science links it to interventions in China that may have caused a long-lasting disruption to the fentanyl supply chain.
The authors point to a dramatic fall in the purity of fentanyl being seized by US law enforcement from May 2023 to the end of 2024 – the latest data publicly available – which correlates with the fall in overdose deaths,There was a similar fall in purity in Canada, which is a distinct fentanyl market, suggesting the cause might originate where they both source their precursors: China,The idea that the flow of precursors was disrupted is supported by reports from 2024 of cartel cooks struggling to source them, while new and strange adulterants appeared in the fentanyl on US streets, suggesting those cooks might have been experimenting with alternative synthesis pathways,But there are big caveats,For one, it is difficult to pinpoint which of China’s self-reported interventions might be responsible.
And then it is also unclear that the fall in purity is what actually caused the fall in overdose deaths.Nonetheless, Liu Pengyu, the spokesperson at the Chinese embassy in Washington, said in a statement that China was glad to see fentanyl overdose deaths had decreased and noted that the US government’s 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment “implies that Chinese government efforts have made [a] contribution to addressing the fentanyl problem in the US”.Henrietta Levin, who was director for China on Biden’s national security council, said her former colleagues saw the Science paper as showing that their pressure on China had worked.“I think China could have done more,” said Levin.“But what they did do mattered.
”Further supply side interventions are likely to be on the agenda at this week’s summit.Ideally, said Levin, these would include China changing laws to make it easier to prosecute drug trafficking, and more action from its commerce ministry to really control the behaviour of chemical companies.“A lot of this comes down to enforcement,” said Levin.“China announced export controls [on various fentanyl precursors], and that’s important.But Chinese chemical companies are gauging how serious the government is about actually enforcing those restrictions.
”Yet history shows that, so long as the demand is there, supply shocks are always temporary – and can have unpredictable effects, even making things worse.Indeed, it was only after China put a blanket ban on fentanyl in 2019 that the supply chain evolved to loop Mexico’s cartels in, who began to import precursors from China and then traffic the finished product over the US-Mexico border, almost entirely replacing their previous trade in heroin.“There’s a kind of myopia here,” said Nabarun Dasgupta, director of the University of North Carolina’s opioid data lab.“That time, the geopolitics of it backfired.”Additional research by Yu-chen Li
‘Hold the line’: Burnham tells allies in parliament he still has options to return
Andy Burnham has told Labour MPs they should hold the line and that he has options to return to parliament after several seats identified by his allies failed to materialise.Two seats that backers of the Greater Manchester mayor had described as “nailed on” as recently as Monday night are now out of contention after the MPs concerned got cold feet.Burnham spoke to a number of MPs by phone on Tuesday and assured them that he still intended to seek an imminent return to parliament.The Guardian was told by two MPs on Wednesday that Jeff Smith, who represents Manchester Withington, an affluent suburb of the city, was in talks about stepping aside for Burnham, but his friends denied it. Asked whether he was about to make way, Smith told the Press Association he was not
‘It’s more incrementalism’: Starmer’s safe king’s speech fails to quell mutiny
For Keir Starmer’s Labour critics, his second king’s speech, in which the government set out what it would do in parliament over the next 12 to 18 months, was a crystallisation of everything that was wrong with the prime minister’s strategy.Over 34 bills and three draft ones, Starmer set out a programme he said would “make this country stronger and fairer”. But the package, which included limiting trial by jury, reshaping the NHS and moving the country closer to the EU, fell short of what some in the prime minister’s party feel is needed to win back voters’ trust.“Most of this is incrementalism,” said one Labour MP. “This sums up where we have gone wrong in the first two years in government
Starmer has ‘full confidence’ in Streeting despite health secretary’s allies saying he is planning to resign – as it happened
Downing Street has now confirmed that Wes Streeting is still health secretary. The PM’s spokesperson told reporters the prime minister has “full confidence” in the health secretary.Allies of Wes Streeting have said he is preparing to stand down as health secretary amid deep frustration with Keir Starmer’s leadership, and could mount a formal challenge for the leadership as early as Thursday.Keir Starmer has put long-promised changes to education, health and the courts at the heart of his agenda for the next year, as the embattled prime minister looks to prove he can enact the scale of change being demanded by Labour MPs and voters. There were 37 bills in the speech
Labour politicians should put the country before their party | Letters
As an active and loyal Labour member, I am infuriated by what is happening within the party (Burnham allies warn against quick ‘coronation’ of Streeting if Starmer quits, 12 May). The ongoing circus about the leadership is a terrible distraction from the numerous global and national issues that the government and the prime minister should be focused on. But the most infuriating aspect of the entire shambles is the relentless speculation and briefings from so-called “allies” of Andy Burham.No Labour member has an innate right to be selected as a parliamentary candidate. The assertion that a sitting Labour MP should give up the seat voters elected them to, necessitating a byelection so that Burnham can run, then assuming that he would automatically retain the seat, is arrogance beyond belief
Labour lost the vote of small business owners like me | Letter
Your report (Reform wins across northern England overturn decades of Labour control, 8 May) touched on Labour losing support among small business owners. I wanted to offer the perspective of a small independent business owner who has traditionally supported Labour.Labour’s poor local election results may reflect a growing frustration among small business owners who no longer feel recognised as “working people”. In hospitality, hair and beauty, retail and trades, there are thousands upon thousands of us keeping local economies alive while taking home increasingly modest incomes ourselves.Last year, our small independent restaurant in Margate turned over roughly £350,000
King’s speech might be the last word on Starmer as reluctant monarch does his duty | John Crace
The king looked fed up. His attempts to throw a sickie had come to nothing. Did the government really want to go ahead with the state opening? Apparently it did. Would it be OK if he phoned it in? He fancied a day working from palace. It wouldn’t be OK
Court rules Coles misled shoppers with its ‘Down Down’ discount campaign
Housing market in England and Wales weakening due to Iran war, say estate agents
Datacentres using 6% of electricity supply in UK and US, research says
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang joins other US bosses on Trump trip to China
Ivan Cleary begins long goodbye with a legacy built to last long after he leaves Panthers | Nick Tedeschi
Sarah Taylor named England men’s fielding coach while Gay, Rew and Baker are called up