US traders make big profits betting on Maduro’s capture in January

A picture


Gamblers appear to have made large profits after successfully betting on the capture of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro.Ahead of Donald Trump’s shock announcement on Saturday morning, traders seemed to have anticipated Maduro’s political demise by placing timely wagers on so-called “prediction markets”.Prediction markets are online gambling platforms that allow individuals to bet against each other on a range of markets that have been created by the host website.They are typically binary bets – for example, punting on yes/no or higher/lower outcomes – with the markets ranging from the identity of the next Republican US presidential nominee (JD Vance/Marco Rubio) to wagers on whether the S&P 500 index will rise or fall on a particular trading day on Wall Street.Last Friday, an apparent new trader on Polymarket.

com seemed to invest $30,000 on the market: Maduro out by January 31, 2026?,After Maduro’s capture was announced on Saturday morning, that same investor seemed to have made profits of $436,759,61,That windfall – as well as corresponding losses to punters on the other side of the bet – was realised in a matter of hours,Data on the same market published on the Polymarket site suggests that, at 3pm (GMT) on 2 January, there was a 5.

5% implied chance of Maduro no longer being the president of Venezuela by the end of the month.The chance had risen to 11% by 6am on 3 January, 28.5% at 6.30am and 56.5% by 7.

30am.By 9.30am the market was trading at almost 99%.Meanwhile, a related Polymarket wager – Maduro in US custody by January 31? – also seems to have had attracted two prescient trades, matched at prices of 0.22 and 0.

11 (implying a 22% and 11% chance) early on Saturday before jumping to above 0.99.Prediction markets have started to gain popularity in the US, with the volume of bets growing from under $100m in early 2024 to over $13bn, according to a report from the crypto firms Dune and Keyrock.The US president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, has taken advisory roles at the two best-known companies, Kalshi and Polymarket.However, they are not a new development.

Almost 26 years ago, a website called Flutter.com was launched in the UK by a trio of American entrepreneurs.It allowed low-stakes bets between individual punters, although the concept did not take off in the UK and the company was swiftly taken over by the betting exchange Betfair.Polymarket has been contacted for comment.
businessSee all
A picture

The FTSE at 10,000: a missed opportunity for some marketing razzmatazz | Nils Pratley

There are three ways to view the FTSE 100 index hitting 10,000 points for the first time. One is to say round numbers are irrelevant. Since share prices are meant to go up over the long term, an index that was created in 1984 at a starting value of 1,000 was bound to get there eventually.In any case, a pure value-weighted points measure doesn’t capture the dividends paid by component companies, which can add up to a material part of an investor’s return over time if reinvested. Nor is the Footsie guaranteed to stay above 10,000, obviously

A picture

FTSE 100 posts best day in six months as stock market rally continues – as it happened

And finally, a newsflash! The UK’s stock market has just posted its best day in six months.The FTSE 100 index, which tracks the biggest companies listed in London, has closed 118 points higher tonight at 10,122 points, a gain of 1.18% and a new closing high.That’s the biggest daily percentage increase since 10 July, and also the largest points gain since last April when markets were rallying after Donald Trump paused his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.Precious metals producer Fresnillo (+5

A picture

Kent water failure was foreseen and could have been stopped, regulator says

A failure at a water treatment centre that left tens of thousands of Kent households without water was foreseen weeks before it happened and could have been stopped, the regulator has said.Twenty-four thousand homes in the Tunbridge Wells area were without drinking water for two weeks from 30 November last year due to a failure at the Pembury water treatment centre.At first there was no water coming from taps, and then the town was put under a boil water notice. South East Water told residents the water from their taps was unsuitable for drinking, giving to pets, brushing teeth, washing children or bathing in with an open wound.Marcus Rink, the chief inspector at the Drinking Water Inspectorate (DWI), said the problem began on 9 November when there was a “noticeable deterioration” at the plant

A picture

US will be exempt from global tax deal targeting profits of large multinationals

Nearly 150 countries have agreed on a landmark plan to stop large global companies shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions, but the US will be exempt from the deal, angering tax transparency groups.The plan, finalised by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, excludes large US-based multinational corporations from the 15% global minimum tax after negotiations between the Trump administration and other members of the G7.The OECD secretary general, Mathias Cormann, described the agreement as a “landmark decision in international tax cooperation” that “enhances tax certainty, reduces complexity, and protects tax bases”.Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, called the deal “a historic victory in preserving US sovereignty and protecting American workers and businesses from extraterritorial overreach.”Cormann was elected to head the OECD in 2021 with Donald Trump’s support

A picture

Deep in the vaults: the Bank of England’s £1.4bn Venezuelan gold conundrum

Nicolás Maduro’s seizure by US reopens question of who controls country’s reserves held in the UKTrump suggests US taxpayers could reimburse oil firmsBusiness live – latest updatesVenezuela live – latest updatesDeep under London’s streets, thousands of miles from Caracas, Nicolás Maduro’s seizure by the US has reopened a multibillion-dollar question: who controls Venezuela’s gold reserves at the Bank of England?After the ousting of Maduro, global attention has largely focused on the South American country’s vast oil wealth – believed to be the largest reserves of any nation in the world. However, Venezuela also has significant gold holdings – including bullion worth at least $1.95bn (£1.4bn) frozen in Britain.For years the gold bars have been the subject of a tussle in the London courts, entangling the Bank and the UK government in Venezuelan politics and a geopolitical battle that is now taking a fresh twist

A picture

Next expects profits to top £1.1bn after bumper festive sales

The high street retailer Next expects its annual profits to top £1.1bn after it rang up much stronger sales than expected over Christmas – but it has warned that 2026 will be tougher amid “continuing pressures on UK employment”.The clothing and homewares retailer said it was improving annual profit forecasts by £15m, its fourth upgrade in eight months, after UK sales rose by 5.9% in the nine weeks to 27 December, far stronger than the 4.1% expected