F1 title run-in: Who will win the drivers’ championship in three-way tussle? | Giles Richards

A picture


Ordinarily at this point in the Formula One season, form has been settled,This year, with four meetings remaining, the title run-in reaches its decisive phase with a three-way fight between the McLarens of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri and the Red Bull of Max Verstappen,Divining the outcome is a decidedly tricky affair,As recently as the Dutch GP in August it appeared a two-way battle between the McLaren drivers would decide it,However, with Red Bull managing to apply upgrades that have unlocked the performance of the RB21, the equation is far more complex.

Their car can now be as good, if not better, than the McLaren but the margins are small and neither team can be entirely sure who will have the edge on a given weekend,It makes for a fascinating finale, one made all the more intriguing by the human factor,Norris leads the championship by one point from Piastri, with Verstappen 36 points off the lead,Were the three protagonists on similar points it would be all but impossible not to back Verstappen’s experience and ruthless execution to see him through,As it is he still needs a little fortune in the form of DNFs or both McLarens having a terrible weekend.

In the absence of this, it is Norris who carries the experience over his teammate and has been on much better form in recent races, which has perhaps given him just enough momentum to edge him over the line.Interlagos, 9 NovemberLast year’s winner Max VerstappenThe majestic, sweeping circuit in São Paulo should favour the McLaren.A mix of opening and closing fast sectors with a tight midsection, the high altitude allows teams to run a higher downforce setup.McLaren have enjoyed a strong aero-efficiency and should excel in the medium to high-speed corners on the quick sections of the Autódromo José Carlos Pace, if it is dry.However, last year in the wet Verstappen gave another masterclass coming from 17th to win the race, in one of his greatest performances.

It all but sealed his fourth title which he delivered at the next round in Las Vegas.The Red Bull is more competitive now than it was at this point last year and rain is expected over the weekend in São Paulo.With a sprint race thrown in, Brazil could once more be pivotal in turning the title race.In the wet it will be advantage Verstappen while the two McLaren drivers must ensure they make no mistakes.Predicted winner VerstappenLas Vegas Strip Circuit, 23 NovemberLast year’s winner George RussellThe preponderance of straights on the street circuit of Vegas make for a low-downforce track and that combined with slow corners and cold temperatures all mitigate against McLaren who have had a poor record here since the race was first held in 2023.

Neither driver has qualified or finished higher than sixth.The track layout does not play to the strengths of the MCL39 and similarly the cool temperatures mitigate its tyre management advantage.Mercedes and Ferrari in contrast have found Vegas suited to their cars and they will expect to be fighting at the front once more.However, since Red Bull’s aero overhaul they have been enormously strong on the low-downforce tracks and with their ability to now run at a lower ride height too, of the title contenders Verstappen will expect to win big on the Strip.Predicted winner VerstappenLusail International Circuit, 30 NovemberLast year’s winner VerstappenA meeting with the final sprint race of the season so another opportunity for a potential swing, McLaren would consider this very much in their wheelhouse.

A fast track dominated by flowing high-speed long corners, requiring a reasonably high downforce.Yet last year having taken a one-two in the sprint, both McLarens failed to deliver in the race.They qualified poorly and Norris was given a penalty for failing to slow under yellows in the race, taking him out of contention.Red Bull in contrast hooked up their car pretty much perfectly and Verstappen delivered.This season they would expect to at least be nipping at the heels of McLaren if not better but Norris and Piastri will expect to emerge on top in Qatar.

Predicted winner PiastriYas Marina Circuit, 7 DecemberLast year’s winner Lando NorrisA circuit that must be considered all but perfect for the McLaren, which may be crucial if, as expected, this fight goes to the wire.Straights and fast corners favour their aero efficiency as does the smooth surface and the absence of some of the slower, tight turns removed with the reconfiguration of 2021.Norris won from pole last year to seal the constructors’ championship for McLaren, but again the team are unlikely to enjoy such an advantage over Red Bull this time and Verstappen has won four of the last five races in Abu Dhabi.If it is the title decider and if it is close, it may be a matter of who can hold their nerve when it counts to close it out.Predicted winner NorrisPredicted 2025 drivers’ champion Norris
cultureSee all
A picture

My cultural awakening: A Jim Carrey series made me embrace baldness – and shave my head on the spot

I was a mess of insecurities, trying to hide thinning hair, worried I was ageing too quickly. Then a scene in the TV show Kidding changed everythingGrowing up, I was obsessed with Jim Carrey. I was just entering my teens when The Mask came out, and I can still picture myself watching Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls on TV one weekend afternoon, absolutely howling at the silliness of it. His elastic facial expressions, the energy, the stunts – it was the perfect tenor of humour for a young boy.By the time I was in college, I had moved on to his more thoughtful films

A picture

From Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere to IT: Welcome to Derry – your complete entertainment guide to the week ahead

Jeremy Allen White channels the Boss in a hotly tipped new biopic, and Pennywise the clown returns to terrorise unsuspecting children in a spooky horror prequel seriesSpringsteen: Deliver Me from NowhereOut now The Bear’s Jeremy Allen White plays the Boss in this buzzed-about Bruce Springsteen biopic focusing on the period when he was making his 1982 album Nebraska (so, post-Born to Run but pre-Born in the USA), with Jeremy Strong playing critic turned producer Jon Landau.The MastermindOut now Kelly Reichardt returns with an art heist movie inspired by a real robbery in 1970s Massachusetts, in which two Gauguins, a Picasso and a Rembrandt were nicked. Here, it’s Arthur Dove paintings that catch the eye of Josh O’Connor’s art thief James Blaine Mooney.ParaNormanOut now An odd dearth of family films has left a gap in the market into which this rerelease of 2012’s animated adventure ParaNorman has decided to slip. Norman Babcock (Kodi Smit-McPhee) is the misfit 11-year-old who speaks with the dead, enabling a spooky adventure to unfold in time for Halloween

A picture

John Deere obituary

My father, John Deere, who has died aged 89, was the arts director of Nottingham county council for 20 years. A passionate advocate for the arts, he was appointed to the post in the council’s newly established leisure services department in 1975, following the national reorganisation of local authorities.There, for 20 years, he transformed the artistic life of Nottinghamshire through development and funding of arts activities across the county. In the town of Retford, he supported the internationally famous Cantamus girls choir and, in Mansfield, the Mansfield Palace theatre.Events ranged from concerts by world-renowned musicians such as Vladimir Ashkenazy, André Previn and the pianist John Ogdon, a native of Nottinghamshire, to poetry readings by established poets such as Aeronwy Thomas, Dylan’s daughter

A picture

Timely assurance from Lear’s Kent | Letters

The passing of John Woodvine (Obituary, 13 October) reminded me of the time when four of us University of East Anglia students went to the Norwich Theatre Royal to see the Actors’ Company touring King Lear in June 1974.We were early and went for a something to eat at a newly opened “burger” style restaurant with booths and partitions so you couldn’t see who was at adjacent tables – a novelty at the time. The service was very slow and we were concerned that we would be late for the theatre.Suddenly a head appeared over the partition and said: “Don’t worry – they won’t start without me!” It was John Woodvine, who turned out to be the Earl of Kent and was the first to speak in the play. Needless to say we made it in time

A picture

The Guide #214: Sleep-inducing songs and tranquilising TV – the culture that sends us to sleep (in a good way)

How do you sleep at night? If you’re like Hannah, a recent subject of the Guardian’s My cultural awakening column, it’s to the sound of a rat whisking eggs. The series shares stories of people who made a significant life change thanks to a piece of popular culture, and in the case of Hannah, that meant curing insomnia by watching Ratatouille. Every night for the last 15 years, at home or abroad, she switches on the Pixar classic and, within minutes, finds herself dropping off, thanks to the film’s comforting, consistent soundscape. It’s so effective, in fact, she’s never even seen it all the way through.Hannah’s might be a bit of an extreme example, but her tale does touch on something universal: culture seems to play an increasingly important role these days in helping people nod off

A picture

Seth Meyers on Trump’s White House ballroom: ‘This couldn’t be any more of a bait and switch’

Late-night hosts mocked Donald Trump’s demolition of the East Wing of the White House and the corporate sponsors of his $300m gilded ballroom.On Thursday’s Late Night, Seth Meyers expressed disbelief over the president’s gilded ballroom project for the White House. “It would be bad enough if Trump’s biggest priority was just building a gilded vanity project for himself, but it’s so much worse,” he said. “Because to do it, he’s tearing down a somewhat well-known and beloved piece of property.”That would be the entire East Wing of the presidential residence, which has stood for 120 years