Trump celebrates tax bill passing, Reeves must boost headroom to £30bn, says ex-Bank of England deputy – business live
It is a rather weak open for stock markets in Europe this morning.In the UK, the blue chip FTSE 100 index has slipped 0.3% in early trading.The German Dax index slipped 0.5%, while the French Cac 40 index dropped by 0.
8%, as the European Union tries to finalise a new trade deal with the US,Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at the investment broker Hargreaves Lansdown, said that optimism is starting to evaporate at the end of the week as the US tariff deadline looms on 9 July,There’s a distinct lack of Friday fizz for the FTSE 100, as investors mull repercussions for the global economy,Investors are also assessing the implications of the passing of Trump’s big tax cut bill which will add to the mountain of US debt,Streeter added the US stock market has been riding high on signals that so far Trump’s trade policies have not weakened the economy.
The closely watched US jobs report for June signalled much more strength in the labour market than expected.Although it’s wiped out hopes of an interest rate cut this month, it didn’t hit sentiment, which appears more focused on the resilience of the world’s largest economy.Markets are closed for the July 4th holiday but more caution is set to creep into sentiment and show up when trading resumes on Monday.Rachel Reeves has not given herself enough fiscal headroom to manage public finances, Charlie Bean, the former deputy of the Bank of England has said, and has to “neurotically fine tune taxes”.Bean, who is also a former member of the OBR’s budget responsibility committee, told Radio 4’s Today programme the chancellor had chosen fiscal rules that give her a “very small margin” of headroom.
About £10 billion - that’s a very small number in the context of overall public spending.Government spending is about about one and a quarter trillion so £10 billion is a small number … and it is a small number in the context of typical forecasting errors.You can’t forecast the future perfectly both because you can’t forecast the economy and you can’t forecast all the elements of public finances ….the forecasts are imprecise and there is no way you can avoid that.That is a fact of life.
She should aim to operate with a larger margin of headroom, so previous chancellors have typically operated with headroom of the order of £30 billion.Because she has chosen about a third of that … it is very easy for numbers to go in the wrong direction and she finds she has to neurotically fine tune taxes to control the OBR forecast that is several years ahead.The original sin is that she should not have chosen to operate with such a tight margin of error.Reeves has been under intense public pressure, after the government’s concessions to Labour MPs over plans to change welfare payments have wiped out plans for £5bn savings a year.Oil futures have slipped after the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remains committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Brent crude futures dropped by 0,51% to $68,45 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0,37% to $66,75.
Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, said:Thursday’s news that the U.S.is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araqchi’s clarification that cooperation with the U.N.atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities.
This week Tehran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency,However Hari added that the oil price correction “may have to wait till Monday”, when the US returns from a long weekend and reacts to an Opec+ decision on Sunday,Opec+, the world’s biggest group of oil producers, is expected to announce an increase of 411,000 barrels per day in production for August,Meanwhile in the UK, British electric car sales rose by a third in the first half of 2025 after the strongest June for overall car sales since before the Covid pandemic,The number of battery electric car sales rose 34.
6% to 224,838 units in the first six months of the year, according to preliminary data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), a lobby group.New car sales rose 6.8% year-on-year in June to 191,200 units, the best sales figures for the month since 2019.A quarter of all June sales, or nearly 47,400, were electric.The figures come amid a difficult period for the the UK car industry, which has struggled to increase sales to pre-pandemic levels as potential buyers have been hit by the cost of living crisis after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
British car factories have also had to contend with a major slowdown in response to extra US tariffs of 25% announced by Donald Trump in March.Last month UK car production fell to its lowest level for May since 1949 as manufacturers cut back shipments.You can read the full story from my colleague Jasper Jolly here.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.President Donald Trump has secured passage of his controversial flagship tax and spending bill, after the House of Representatives approved the bill late on Thursday.
The 218-to-214 vote sends the legislation to Trump, who has said he plans to sign the bill on Friday as the US celebrates Independence Day.Speaking to supporters at the Iowa State Fairground, he said “there could be no better birthday present for America”.There could be no better birthday present for America than the phenomenal victory we achieved just hours ago, when Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” to make America great again…one-hundred-and-sixty-five days into the Trump administration, America is on a winning streak like, frankly, nobody has ever seen before in the history of the presidency.”Meanwhile, the president’s trade war rattles on.Trump told reporters late on Thursday that his administration will start sending out letters on Friday setting unilateral tariff rates, which countries would have to begin paying on 1 August.
Trump said “10 or 12” letters would go out on Friday, with additional letters coming “over the next few days”.The higher import duties will range in value from “maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs”, he said.The top tier of that range would be higher than any of the levies the president first outlined during his Liberation Day rollout in April.He did not provide any detail on which countries might receive such high tariffs.The UK is one of a few countries that has reached a trade agreement with Trump, including Vietnam.
Many trading partners such as the European Union, Japan and South Korea are still trying to finalise trade deals,Trump has threatened that if countries fail to reach deals by 9 July, he could simply impose tariff rates on them,9:00am BST: UK SMMT car market figures for the first half of the year9:30am BST: UK PMI construction dataUS market closed for Independence Day
How can I use leftover pickle brine in day-to-day cooking? | Kitchen aide
I’m an avid consumer of pickles, especially gherkins. When I’ve finished a jar, how can I use the brine in my cooking?Geoff, SheffieldLast year, Dua Lipa poured Diet Coke into an ice-filled glass, topped it up with the brine from both a tub of pickles (plus a few rogue pickles) and a tub of jalapeños, swirled it around, then drank it. While someone under the viral TikTok video asked, “Dua, is everything OK?”, the pop star is right about one thing: it’s time we start thinking of pickle brine as an ingredient, rather than a byproduct.“The brine retains all of that delicious pickle flavour,” says Moon Lee, head chef of no-waste restaurant Silo in London, “and a mixture of sweet and savoury undertones”. Also, because it’s fermented, “it has an almost tangy, kombucha-like taste, too
How to turn veg scraps into a delicious dip – recipe | Waste not
My friend Hayley North is a retreat chef whose cooking is inspired by the Chinese “five elements” theory: fire, earth, metal, water and wood. Each element corresponds to a colour and an organ in the body (earth, for example, is yellow and linked to the spleen). Years ago, Hayley made me the most deliciously vibrant and earthy bright-red dip from kale, and today’s recipe is a homage to her nourishing, elemental approach, while also saving scraps from the bin.I love the adage “eat the rainbow”. Yes, it’s a bit corny, but it works, and sometimes the simplest advice is really the best
Frittata, ‘egg and chips’ and a bean feast: Sami Tamimi’s brunch recipes from Palestine
What better way to welcome the weekend than with the smell and sound of herb-loaded ijeh frying? This is a thick, delicious frittata-like mixture of courgettes, leeks, peas, herbs and eggs, and in Palestine it’s often made with finely chopped onions, too. I always keep a couple of tins of ful (fava beans) in my pantry for those times when I crave a quick and satisfying late breakfast or weekend lunch. When simple toast and butter won’t do the trick and I’m in need of something more substantial and savoury, that’s when fava beans come to the rescue.You can substitute the eggs with feta for an extra-creamy and salty touch. Alternatively, the dish works beautifully as a vegan dish without the eggs
Jam tarts and summer pudding cake: Nicola Lamb’s recipes for baking with mixed berries
First up, a crostata-inspired jam tart that’s perfect for afternoon tea or nibbling throughout the day. Fennel seeds in the buttery pastry give a subtle flavour surprise, although you could omit them, or try coriander seeds or ginger instead. A small batch of jam is surprisingly quick to make, but you can, of course, use shop-bought, or make use of one of those jars living rent-free in your cupboard. Then, a summer pudding-inspired cake that makes a delightful centrepiece – the juices from the berries absorb into the top third of the sponge, giving it a gorgeous, ombre tone that looks as beautiful as it tastes.Use a mixture of whatever berries are plentiful; frozen will work well, too
Georgina Hayden’s recipe for spiced crab egg fried rice
Crab deserves to be celebrated, but that doesn’t mean it has to be a super-fancy, laborious meal. Crab midweek? Yes, please, and fried rice is my fallback whenever I am in a dinner pickle. That’s not to belittle its deliciousness, complexity or elegance, though, because this spiced crab version can be as fancy as you like. That said, the speed and ease with which I can create a meal that I know everyone will love is the winning factor. Plus, I often have leftover cooked, chilled rice in the fridge, anyway, which is always the clincher (cooked rice has a better texture for frying once chilled)
Rukmini Iyer’s quick and easy recipe for courgette linguine with trout, lemon and dill | Quick and easy
This is such a lovely, summery dish: it takes under 30 minutes from start to finish, and I found it immensely reviving after a long day. The grated courgette melts into the pasta, and works perfectly with the lemon, trout and a hit of chilli. If you have one of those multi-nut and seed mixes (the M&S 35-plant one is excellent), by all means add a scoop to finish; otherwise, a scattering of toasted pine nuts will add a welcome crunch. An elegant dinner for two.Prep 10 min Cook 20 min Serves 22 trout fillets 2½ tbsp olive oilSea saltJuice and finely grated zest of ½ lemon, plus 2 lemon slices180g linguine 2 garlic cloves, peeled and finely grated1 tsp chilli flakes1 large courgette, trimmed and coarsely grated10g fresh dill, roughly chopped 4 tbsp pine nuts, or 4 tbsp omega nut and seed mixHeat the oven to 200C (180C fan)/390F/gas 6
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