Pound sinks against euro and dollar as tax rises loom and growth slows
The threat of higher taxes in next month’s budget and concerns about slowing economic growth pushed the pound to its lowest level against the euro in more than two and a half years on Wednesday.Sterling also slumped against the dollar as traders digested news that Rachel Reeves will need to fill a larger hole in the public finances when she puts together her budget plan, after a bigger-than-expected downgrade to the UK’s productivity outlook.The pound fell to $1.32 against the dollar, hitting the lowest level since early August.The UK currency fared even worse against the euro, slumping to almost €1.
13, the lowest level since April 2023.Analysts said the prospect of tax rises and spending cuts as part of a tough budget on 26 November had brought forward the likely date for when the Bank of England will cut interest rates from the current 4% to 3.75%.Until recently, financial markets had bet that the next rate reduction would be delayed until March, but investors are now fully pricing in a quarter-point cut in February.Analysts at Goldman Sachs changed their forecast on Wednesday, saying they expected a quarter-point cut to be brought forward to next week’s meeting of central bank policymakers.
Lower rates push down currency valuations because investors move their capital out of a jurisdiction to invest somewhere else with higher rates in the hope of better returns.Threadneedle Street is expected to view inflation as having peaked after the official annual rate remained at 3.8% for the past three months, prompting an earlier cut to the cost of borrowing.In the US, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark policy rate by a quarter point to the 3.75%-4% range on Wednesday after the conclusion of a two-day meeting.
Jerome Powell, the Fed boss, voted with the majority for a more limited reduction than the Fed board member Stephen Miran – a Donald Trump nominee – who dissented in favour of a larger, half-point cut.The US president has called for steeper cuts in borrowing costs but over the longer term most analysts estimate that US interest rates will settle at a higher level than the UK’s, making dollar assets more attractive.Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, said: “It looks like the fall in sterling is largely driven by the view that Reeves will hold the line on the budget – perhaps be forced to raise taxes or cut spending a little more than she’d been planning.Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotion“But by holding the line on the fiscal rules, the BoE might have to cut rates a little earlier than had been priced by the markets.”He said Reeves’s tough stance had also lowered the UK’s risk as a borrower, making its debt financing cheaper.
The likelihood of a cut in UK interest rates at a meeting next week has risen from 15% to 35%, said Turner.“So the sterling sell-off is not about Reeves credibility or the UK fiscal hole, but more the adjustment towards tighter fiscal and looser monetary policy – which is typically negative for a currency,” he added.Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at the currency dealer Swissquote, said it was notable that the British Retail Consortium’s inflation index for October showed the sharpest decline in food prices since the pandemic, which will be a “boost for the doves” on the Bank’s monetary policy committee concerned about rising shop prices.
EU carmakers ‘days away’ from halting work as chip war with China escalates
Carmakers in the EU are “days away” from closing production lines, the industry has warned, as a crisis over computer chip supplies from China escalates.The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) issued an urgent warning on Wednesday saying its members, which include BMW, Fiat, Peugeot and Volkswagen, were now working on “reserve stocks but supplies are dwindling”.“Assembly line stoppages might only be days away. We urge all involved to redouble their efforts to find a diplomatic way out of this critical situation,” said its director general, Sigrid de Vries.Another ACEA member, Mercedes, is now searching globally for alternative sources of the crucial semiconductors, according to its chief executive, Ola Källenius
Wall Street hits new highs as Nvidia becomes world’s first $5tn company – as it happened
Wall Street’s main indices hit new record highs, as Nvidia become the first company ever to surpass a $5tn stock market valuation.This comes amid a wave of big tech earnings reports, and as investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later today – it is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point to 4%.Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B.Riley Wealth Management, told Reuters:While the $5tn milestone seems unfathomable in a historic context, it comes in the wake of a company that has managed to outperform on all metrics.Nvidia shares rose as much as 5% and are now up 4
Apple hits $4tn market value as new iPhone models revitalize sales
Apple topped $4tn (£3tn) in market value for the first time on Tuesday, joining Microsoft and Nvidia as the third company in history to hit the milestone, thanks to strong demand for its latest iPhones.Apple’s share price has increased by more than 50% since a low point in April, thanks to the debut of its latest products.“The iPhone accounts for over half of Apple’s profit and revenue, and the more phones they can get into the hands of people, the more they can drive people into their ecosystem,” said Chris Zaccarelli, the chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, before the milestone was reached.Apple’s shares had struggled earlier this year on concerns over tough competition in China and how it would cope with high US tariffs on Asian economies such as China and India, its main manufacturing hubs.However, the latest smartphones, the iPhone 17 lineup, have won back customers from Beijing to Moscow, while the company has swallowed tariff costs instead of passing them on to consumers
OpenAI completes conversion to for-profit business after lengthy legal saga
OpenAI said on Tuesday it had converted its main business into a for-profit corporation, the conclusion of a lengthy and fraught legal saga.A crucial regulator, Kathy Jennings, the Delaware attorney general, said she approved the plan for the startup, which began as a non-profit in 2015, to change to a public benefit corporation, a type of for-profit entity that expresses commitment to bettering society.The company also said it had reorganized its ownership structure and signed a new agreement with its longtime backer Microsoft that gives the software giant a roughly 27% stake in OpenAI’s new for-profit corporation, but changes some of the details of their close partnership. OpenAI was valued at $500bn under the terms of the deal, making Microsoft’s stake worth more than $100bn.The restructuring paves the way for the ChatGPT maker to more easily raise capital and profit off its artificial intelligence technology, even as it remains technically under the control of its own original non-profit entity
Dingwall backed to plot course through the midfield maze for England
Even Steve Borthwick admits that picking his team to face Australia on Saturday was tricky. And even after he had made his mind up, there was a training ground snapshot which underlined the slim margins involved. “There was a piece of play where the skill showed by the team not starting was absolutely incredible,” said Borthwick. “I couldn’t praise them highly enough for the way they tested the team that is starting.”Which neatly sums up England’s intensifying backline debate
South Africa beat England by 125 runs: Women’s Cricket World Cup semi-final – as it happened
That’s all for today. Thanks for your company and emails – we’ll be back in the morning for the second semi-final between India and Australia. Goodnight!Very special. Losing to England in the semis of the last two [ODI] World Cups really hurt so just really pleased to get the win tonight.[Did the 69 all out feature in your mind before the game?] It did a little bit! Same opposition, same venue; your mind automatically goes back to that game
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