Keir Starmer plays down warnings that taxes will have to be raised in autumn

Keir Starmer has sought to play down warnings that the government will be forced to raise taxes this autumn and said some of the figures being circulated “are not ones I recognise”.The prime minister was responding to forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which projected a shortfall of up to £51bn in the public finances, given a number of factors had knocked the chancellor’s plans to stay within Whitehall spending limits, including higher debt interest payments and U-turns on welfare spending cuts.NIESR said “moderate but sustained” tax rises would be needed in the autumn budget for Rachel Reeves to overcome the deficit of £41.2bn and then restore a near £10bn buffer in the current budget or be forced to use harsh cost-cutting measures in the autumn statement.Speaking during a visit to Milton Keynes, Starmer disagreed with the economists’ warnings

Rachel Reeves needs to put up taxes to cover £40bn deficit, thinktank says

Rachel Reeves will need to raise taxes to close a government spending gap that is on course to reach more than £40bn after a slowdown in economic growth and higher-than-expected inflation, according to a leading thinktank.In a blow to Labour’s hopes of balancing the books without breaking manifesto commitments ruling out personal tax rises, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said a number of factors would knock off course the chancellor’s plans to stay within Whitehall spending limits.These factors included headwinds from Donald Trump’s tariff war, higher debt interest payments and U-turns on welfare spending cuts.NIESR said “moderate but sustained” tax rises would be needed in the autumn budget for Reeves to overcome a deficit of £41.2bn and then restore a near £10bn buffer in the current budget, forcing the Treasury to raise more than £51bn from taxes, secure extra borrowing or use severe cost-cutting measures to find extra savings

Labour thinktank offers sponsorship packages to meet and influence ‘key policymakers’

A Labour thinktank has been offering sponsorship packages where businesses can meet and influence MPs and ministers, according to a report.The Labour Infrastructure Forum (LIF) has been offering companies the chance to sponsor events at which they can meet “key policymakers” in private and “shape the discussion”, the Times said.An LIF prospectus lists a set of sponsorship packages on offer for companies, including a £7,850 deal for a “private breakfast/dinner roundtable with an influential Labour figure”.Other deals on offer include £11,750 for a “parliamentary panel event with key policymakers”, and between £21,500 and £30,000 for a “Westminster drinks reception”. The prices are not inclusive of VAT

Support for hardline anti-immigration policies linked to ignorance about migration figures, poll suggests – as it happened

YouGov has released detailed polling on attitudes to immigration that shows a clear link between having hardline anti-immigrant views and being ignorant about the level of illegal immigration into the UK.It is well known that many people massively over-estimate the extent to which irregular migration contributes to the overall net migration figures, which reached a record high of 900,000 in the year ending June 2023.The confusion is partly explained by the huge media and political attention given to people arriving illegal in the UK on small boats. But the annual small boat arrival figure has never been higher than the 46,000 total it reached in 2022 – although it is on course to pass that this year.The YouGov polling suggests that, while cutting migration numbers signifcantly but still allowing some migrants into the country is the policy with most support (very broadly, this is also what Labour and the Tories advocate), almost half of voters either strongly (26%) or somewhat (19%) support “admitting no more new migrants and requiring large numbers of migrants who came to the UK in recent years to leave”

Scottish ministers criticised for slow progress in exam passes for poorer students

Ministers in Scotland are facing intense criticism over a sluggish increase in exam passes by teenagers from deprived areas after repeated promises to greatly improve performance.Opposition parties and Scotland’s largest teaching union said progress in closing the attainment gap – the difference between exam passes for pupils from the wealthiest areas and those from the most deprived – was too slow and too patchy.In 2016, Nicola Sturgeon, then the first minister, published her government’s legislative programme with the promise that “substantially eliminating” the attainment gap by 2026 would be her government’s “defining mission”.This year’s exam results showed that the attainment gap had closed slightly year on year for pupils sitting National 5s, the Scottish equivalent to GCSEs, falling from 17.2 percentage points last year to 16

‘We’re the party of ambition’: Plaid Cymru sets out to topple Labour

It is fair to say that Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, was on safe ground at the national Eisteddfod in Wrexham this week. More than once, festivalgoers interrupted his interview with the Guardian to shake his hand or take a selfie.Ap Iorwerth has just embarked on a nationwide “listening tour” during which he will visit every Welsh constituency, beginning in Wrexham, before the Senedd elections next May.On Tuesday, the Welsh nationalist party celebrates its 100th anniversary, and ap Iorwerth believes he is on the verge of delivering the best present the party could ever ask for: ending Labour’s long reign to win power in Wales for the first time.“Wales gave Keir Starmer his big majority but I don’t think [voters] expected this barrage of bad policy, passing on the cost of the failures of successive governments to the most vulnerable,” the 52-year-old said of the UK Labour government’s refusal to lift the two-child benefit cap and attempts to cut the winter fuel payment and disability benefits