Time to wrap up…The boss of Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company has warned that the strait of Hormuz is “not open” despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreed earlier this week, as uncertainty over the truce pushed the price of US oil over $100 a barrel on Thursday.Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose by over 4% on Thursday to almost $99 a barrel, while New York light crude climbed by 5.8% to as high as $100.29 a barrel.On Wednesday, Brent had tumbled 13.

29%, falling to a four-week low of $94.75 a barrel.The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the Iran war will permanently scar the global economy even if a durable peace deal in the Middle East can be reached.In a speech delivered as the ceasefire in the conflict threatens to unravel, Kristalina Georgieva said the “scarring effects” caused by the war to date would mean slower global growth this year than first anticipated.Had it not been for the outbreak of the conflict six weeks ago, the IMF would have upgraded its global growth outlook for 2026, Georgieva said.

“But now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade.Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo.”British Airways has announced it will offer a reduced flight schedule to the Middle East when it resumes services in July, and use the aircraft to operate more direct flights to India and Kenya.The airline has currently suspended services to the region because of the Iran war, and plans to resume flights to Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, in mid-May, as well as services to Dubai, Doha and Tel Aviv on 1 July.It is cutting its Dubai flights from three – a day to one daily flight, and reducing services to Doha, Tel Aviv and Riyadh from two to one a day.

It will drop Jeddah in Saudi Arabia permanently as a destination from 24 April,Flights to Bahrain and Amman are paused until 25 October,Flights to Larnaca in Cyprus are scheduled to resume on 22 May,OpenAI has put plans for a landmark project to strengthen the UK’s AI capabilities on hold, citing high energy costs and regulation,Stargate UK was a part of the landmark UK-US AI deal announced last September, in which US companies appeared to commit £31bn to the UK’s tech sector, part of a larger series of investments intended to “mainline AI” into the British economy.

The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the Iran war will permanently scar the global economy even if a durable peace deal in the Middle East can be reached,In a speech delivered as the ceasefire in the conflict threatens to unravel, Kristalina Georgieva said the “scarring effects” caused by the war to date would mean slower global growth this year than first anticipated,Had it not been for the outbreak of the conflict six weeks ago, the IMF would have upgraded its global growth outlook for 2026, Georgieva said,double quotation markBut now, even our most hopeful scenario involves a growth downgrade,Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo.

Georgieva said there was heightened uncertainty over the depth of the global slowdown triggered by the war.However, every scenario the body has produced for its flagship World Economic Outlook report – to be published on Tuesday – shows a permanent hit to living standards.The US stock market has opened slightly lower, as investors digest new economic data and assess the US-Iran ceasefire deal.The blue-chip S&P 500 has slipped 0.07%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.

19%.Meanwhile, the price of oil is still rising and is within touching distance of the $100 per barrel mark.The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, is up 4% to $98.54 a barrel.US stock markets are poised to open lower this afternoon, as investors digest this latest bout of economic data and assess the durability of the ceasefire deal in the Middle East.

Futures for the Dow are down 0.34%, while the S&P 500 index is poised to fall 0.24%.Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, notes that core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.This figure eased slightly to 3% year-on-year in February, from 3.

1%, but on a monthly basis it rose to 0.4%.This could reinforce the Fed’s more cautious stance and strengthen the dollar, she said.double quotation markThe accompanying personal income and spending data also shows income growth has become far more muted, falling by 0.1% month on month.

Meanwhile, consumer spending came in lower than expected, rising by just 0.1% compared to 0.4% previously.While continued positive consumption numbers are supportive for near-term economic growth in a consumer-led economy like the US, the slowdown - coming before the war - adds to likely White House pressure on the Fed to cut rates despite evident inflationary threats.What’s more, with income growth falling and spending barely rising in real terms, it seems households are starting to live effectively on borrowed time and may increasingly need to draw on unsustainable sources such as savings, asset wealth or credit to fund expenditure.

Given the significant market and geopolitical developments not captured in this data, today’s release will likely reinforce the Fed’s ‘wait and see’ approach,However, the GDP estimate for Q4 has been revised down further to 0,5%, having already been cut from 1,4% to 0,7%, so it will be keeping a close eye on growth.

Alongside the bleaker GDP figures, there’s been a raft of other economic data out of the US.Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, ticked up in in February, up 0.4% against the prior month.On annual basis, the index is up 2.8%.

Meanwhile US jobless claims rose 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ended 4 April, ahead of expectations of 210,000.The US economy grew even slower than previously thought in the final three months of 2025.It grew at an annualised rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter, official stats suggest.The revision follows an earlier downgrade less than a month ago, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis lowered its estimate to 0.

7% from 1.4%.The head of the biggest oil producer in the United Arab Emirates has said that the strait of Hormuz is “not open”, despite the US-Iran ceasefire deal.Sultan Al Jaber, who runs the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), said in a post on LinkedIn that access through the key shipping channel remained “restricted, conditioned and controlled”.He wrote:double quotation markIran has made clear - through both its statements and actions - that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage.

That is not freedom of navigation,That is coercion,… Conditional passage is not passage,It is control by another name,The strait must be open - fully, unconditionally and without restriction.

Energy security and global economic stability depend on it,The weaponization of this vital waterway, in any form, cannot stand,This would set a dangerous precedent for the world – undermining the principle of freedom of navigation that underpins global trade and, ultimately, the stability of the global economy,An estimated 230 vessels sit loaded with oil and ready to sail,They, and every vessel that follows, must be free to navigate this corridor without condition.

No country has a legitimate right to determine who may pass and under what terms.Energy producers must be able to swiftly and safely restore production at scale.He added that ADNOC has loaded cargoes and will expand production within the constraints of the damage it had suffered.double quotation markMarkets remain at a critical crossroads.The final cargoes that transited the strait of Hormuz before the conflict are now arriving at their destinations.

This is where the paper traded markets are meeting physical reality, and the 40-day gap in global energy flows is truly exposed.The immediate priority is clear: close that gap.Restore the more than 20% of globally traded energy that flows through this corridor.Rebalance markets.Ease the pressure on prices and the cost of living.

This is particularly urgent for Asia, where 80% of these cargoes are bound and half the world’s population lives.… Stability now depends on restoring real flows.Not partial access, not temporary measures, not controlled passage, but full and reliable supply.That is how we slow the economic shockwave already moving through the system.Four Iranian, four Greek and one Chinese ships are among the 11 vessels that have been allowed transit through the strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours since the ceasefire.

Their passage barely dents the blockage on both sides of the narrow passage where around 1,400 ships remain anchored.According to data verified by AXSMarine two eastbound ships, Oman-owned, Lucia and Greek owned, Iolcas Destiny, were given passage from the Gulf in the early hours of Thursday morning despite the Iranian declaration the strait was closed amid concerns over the fragility of the ceasefire.A further ship which cross from west to east on Wednesday did not identify itself and could be part of a shadow fleet.AXS said there was a high degree of “spoofing” and signal disruption particularly among vessels anchored in the Gulf, with many reporting false positions.While the strait has been effectively closed since the outbreak of war, Iran has made concessions to allies including China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan with some Malaysian and Thai vessels granted access after diplomatic talks in the last six weeks.

On 2 April, Iran said it would allow Philippine-flagged vessels to cross following further negotiations.Fuel prices are still rising in the UK, according to the RAC.Its monitor shows that the average petrol price has risen 0.2% today to 158.03p a litre.

Meanwhile diesel has risen 0,3% to 191,11p,They stood at 132,83p and 142.

38p respectively before the war in Iran began.The continued rise may add further pressure on the government to extend its cut to fuel duty.Last week Richard Walker, who is the executive chair of the supermarket chain Iceland and the government’s cost of living champion, urged Keir Starmer not to go ahead with plans to raise the levy in September.However, there have been warnings that tax cuts may be too expensive to keep in place for long.Stefano Scarpetta, chief economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), said in an interview with the Financial Times that the “cost of these policies is especially high”.

More from Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, who is speaking to the EU parliament’s committee on economic and monetary affairs in his role as chair of the Financial Stability Board:Bailey has talked about stablecoins, which are backed by a specific asset, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.He was asked about Iran demanding fees for ships passing through the strait of Hormuz, payable in cryptocurrencies.He said:double quotation markI made the distinction earlier between stablecoins, which are designed to be money with assured value, and Bitcoin type crypto which doesn’t have assured value.I think the Iranians are clearly referring to the second of those, to the Bitcoin type crypto.What lies behind that is the desire to obscure the transaction… this raises big questions, obviously, about money laundering and about controls and, I’ve not been involved in what’s what’s been announced, but it does raise issues