Pound dips after UK economy doesn’t grow in July; Ocado shares slide 20% amid robotic warehouses demand fears – as it happened
The pound has weakened since today’s GDP report showed the UK economy failed to grow in July.Sterling is down 0.2% at $1.355 against the US dollar this morning.Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, points out there is “not much to like” from the July monthly GDP update, with zero growth in the economy at the start of the third quarter.
If the third quarter is not going to be a disaster for the UK economy, then growth in August and September will need to do the heavy lifting.The pound is extending losses on this news and is eroding some of Thursday’s gains.For now, GBP/USD is hanging on to $1.3550, however, if bond yields start to rise on the back of this data, then we could see pound weakness later on Friday.The pound is the third worst performer in the G10 FX space so far today.
Time to wrap up….The UK economy flatlined in July, according to official figures, in grim news for Rachel Reeves as she gears up for a challenging budget.It was a slowdown compared with June, when the economy grew by 0.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics.GDP expanded strongly in the first half of the year, making the UK the fastest-growing economy in the G7, but it had been widely expected to slow in the second half.
The ONS said that growth in the services and construction sectors in July was offset by a 0.9% fall in the production sector, which includes manufacturing.The downbeat data will raise questions about Labour’s promise to kickstart the economy.A Treasury spokesperson said:“We know there’s more to do to boost growth, because, whilst our economy isn’t broken, it does feel stuck.That’s the result of years of underinvestment, which we’re determined to reverse through our plan for change.
”More here:In other newsOcado’s shares have plunged 20% after its US partner, grocery giant Kroger, signalled a potential retreat from investment in automated warehouses.US consumer confidence has dropped, on worries about job security and rising pricesRussia’s central bank has lowered interest rates by one percentage point, less than expectedOof! The London stock market has just closed, cementing a terrible day for Ocado.Ocado’s shares have ended the day down 19.9%, at 240p, as City investors react to the news that its US partner Kroger was considering a potential retreat from investment in automated warehouses.That knocks £500m off Ocado’s market value, as the company was worth just over £2.
5bn at the start of the day,Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, says:“It is hard to overstate how damaging this news is for Ocado,Kroger was one of the linchpins of its expansion strategy, and was a poster boy for the use of Ocado’s technology worldwide,Others may now follow suit,Sadly Ocado has been a losing proposition for most investors over the course of its life as a listed company, with only a brief period in 2013/14 and then from 2018-2021 really delivering the goods.
Today’s news casts a dark shadow over the company and its long-suffering investors.”Back to earth with a bump for poor Ocado: pic.twitter.com/uccCpjsG2zUS consumer sentiment has fallen this month, as Americans worry about rising prices and a weakening jobs market.The University of Michican’s index of consumer morale has declined to 55.
4 from 58.2 in August; according to Bloomberg that’s the lowest reading since May.Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu reports that sentiment about the economy fell particularly strongly among lower and middle income consumers, adding:Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation.Likewise, consumers perceive risks to their pocketbooks as well; current and expected personal finances both eased about 8% this month.Trade policy remains highly salient to consumers, with about 60% of consumers providing unprompted comments about tariffs during interviews, little changed from last month.
Still, sentiment remains above April and May 2025 readings, immediately after the initial announcement of reciprocal tariffs,Consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell to an index value of 55,4 in September (est was 58,0), driven by a big decline in the future expectations component,pic.
twitter,com/XCgxqRbasoShares in Ocado have now slumped even deeper into the red – down a hefty 17% today,As flagged earlier, Ocado’s shares are under pressure after key customer Kroger, the US grocery giant, said it would undertake a site-by-site analysis of its automated fulfilment network,That has raised fears of weaker demand for its robotic warehouses,Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, comments:Kroger also said it was using stores ‘very heavily’ to fulfil e-commerce orders and implied that was its key focus from now on.
“These comments imply that Ocado might find it harder to sell more automated solutions to Kroger, and that existing agreements might come under review.It’s the worst kind of news imaginable for Ocado investors as they’ve bought into a company which has positioned itself as the technology solution to grocery providers’ needs.While Ocado has continued to win new contracts, the pace has been erratic.The prospect of existing relationships starting to deteriorate adds another level of risk.Then there is the big question of when Ocado will ever make a sustainable profit.
”There’s a quiet start to trading on Wall Street, a day after stocks hit record levels.The Dow Jones industrial average has dipped by 126 points, or 0.27%, to 45,982 points.The broader S&P 500 share index is down just 3 points at 6,583 points, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has nudged up to an intraday record high.The oil price has jumped today, as Russia faces more sanctions over the Ukraine war.
This morning, the UK government implemented 100 new sanctions designed to hit Russia’s revenues and military supplies, including against its so-called shadow fleet carrying oil and electronics companies.US President Donald Trump has also threatened Moscow with new economic sanctions, saying that his patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin was “running out fast”.Trump told Fox News:“It’ll be hitting very hard on – with sanctions to banks and having to do with oil and tariffs also.”Brent crude is up almost 2% today, at $67.65 per barrel.
A Ukranian drone attack on Russia’s northwestern port of Primorsk, which led to a suspension of oil loading operations overnight, is another factor.The UK economy could get a boost next week, during Donald Trump’s state visit.According to Bloomberg, the leaders of OpenAI and Nvidia plan to pledge support for billions of dollars in UK data centre investments when they head to the country next week, as part of Trump’s trip.Sam Altman, the boss of ChatGPT maker OpenAI, and chipmaker Nvidia’s chief executive Jensen Huang are reportedly working with London-based data centre business Nscale Global Holdings on the project.More here.
The pound is sliding further against the US dollar.It’s now lost almost half a cent, to $1.3525, as the dollar picks up against rival currencies.Raffi Boyadjian, lead market analyst at XM, says this week’s political ructions could be weighing on sterling:The pound is slightly underperforming today following a slump in UK industrial output in July.Overall GDP growth was flat, but traders are more likely distracted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s repeated unsuccessful attempts at resetting his government, following two high-profile resignations recently.
In better news for Rachel Reeves, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research have predicted the economy will grow in the current quarter.Following this morning’s news that GDP was unchanged in July, NIESR estimate that UK GDP will rise by 0.4% in the July-September quarter.That would be slightly faster growth than the 0.3% recorded in the second quarter of this year.
NIESR says:We expect GDP to grow by 0,4 per cent in the third quarter, as we forecast better monthly growth outturns for August and September,However, elevated uncertainty among businesses and households continue to pose downside risks to this forecast,Fergus Jimenez-England, associate economist at NIESR, warns that economic activity in the third quarter will be constrained by fiscal uncertainty weighing on household and business sentiments, adding:“Growth at this pace will do little to ease the fiscal challenges confronting the Chancellor this Autumn,”⚡️OUT NOW⚡️ Our latest #GDP Tracker expect #UKGDP to grow by 0.
4% in the third quarter 📈⬇️Read more here 📊⬇️#UKeconomy #gdpgrowth https://t.co/U504vvjFVFBack in the financial markets, shares in Ocado have slumped by 12% on fears that one of its key customers could be pulling back from automation.Online grocery firm Ocado is the top faller on the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies, after US supermarket chain Kroger said it plans to conduct a site-by-site analysis of its automated fulfilment network.This suggests Ocado might struggle to sell more automated solutions to Kroger, who has been an important customer in the past.Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, explains:Last night on its earnings call, the US retailer, which is Ocado’s biggest partner for its warehouse automation technology, said it would take a “hard look” at some of its automated facilities and carry out a “full site-by-site analysis” of its existing network.
The comments are clearly a negative for Ocado as Kroger seems likely to move away from the kind of large CFCs provided by the British company and instead seems to be looking to lean on local stores to fill orders.Back in 2018, Ocado’s shares soared after it announced a deal to provide its technology to Kroger – a breakthrough in its push to licence its services to grocers around the world.The TUC have hit out at the chief executive of Barclays for saying the UK government needs to limit pay rises for public sector workersBarclays boss CS Venkatakrishnan told the Financial Times that the government needed to look at its own spending levels, including restricting rising “public sector” wages.He argued:“We need to curb expenditure at the government level.We need to find a way to curb wage inflation.
”TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak has said in responcse that “the prize for the most tone-deaf comment of the year goes to C,S,Venkatakrishnan”, adding:“This banking boss has some brass neck,It’s frankly insulting for him to call on nurses, teachers and paramedics to tighten their belts when he’s just pocketed a bumper pay rise,“He seems to have conveniently forgotten we’re in the middle of a recruitment and retention crisis in our public services.
That’s bad for the country and it’s bad for businesses,Over in Moscow, Russia’s central bank has cut interest rates by a whole percentage point, disappointing those who expected an even larger reduction,The Bank of Russia has decided to cut its key lending rate by 100 basis points to 17,00%, down from 18%,Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a cut of 200 basis points.
Announcing the decision, the Bank points out that inflation is still running above its 4% target:Underlying measures of current price growth have not changed significantly and generally remain above 4% in annualised terms.The economy continues to return to a balanced growth path.Lending growth has accelerated in recent months.Inflation expectations remain high.