Wall Street rallies after US economy added more jobs than forecast in September, after shock losses in August – as it happened
Newsflash: The US economy added more jobs than forecast in September, as America’s jobs market picked up after a summer lull,September’s official employment report, delayed since the start of October by the US government shutdown, shows that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 119,000 in September,That’s more than twice as many jobs as expected, thanks to gains in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance,Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government, though,But there’s bad news too.
The jobs reports from July and August have been revised down, to show that the US economy actually lost jobs in August (!).The Bureau for Labor Statistics explains:The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000.With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.Time to wrap up…Global stock markets are rising after the US economy added more jobs than forecast in September, and Nvidia beat Wall Street expectations.The US market is sharply higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average now up 692 points or 1.
5% at 46,830.Investors pushed the market higher after new data showed the US jobs market added 119,000 jobs in September.Amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the strength of the US economy, the much-anticipated reading was higher than the 51,000 jobs expected by analysts to be added in September.The unemployment rate, meanwhile, ticked up from 4.3% to 4.
4%: its highest level since 2021.And a previous estimate for jobs growth in August was downgraded – revealing an unexpected decline in the US workforce.Stocks had already rallied across Asia-Pacific markets overnight, and in Europe.In London, the FTSE 100 is now up 83 points or 0.9% at 9591 points.
Shares in Nvidia are up 4% after the chipmaker dismissed fears of an AI bubble, beat forecasts for sales growth, and gave an upbeat outlook.CEO Jensen Huang insisted that the artificial intelligence transformation had legs, telling analysts:“AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”Shares in Nvidia have jumped by 3.9% in early trading, to $193.83, after beating Wall Street forecasts last night.
As covered in the introduction, Nvidia also predicted continued strong sales growth.Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of Nvida, told analysts last night:“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble.From our vantage point, we see something very different.As a reminder, Nvidia is unlike any other accelerator.We excel at every phase of AI from pre-training to post-training to inference.
”Wall Street has jumped at the start of trading, as traders hail Nvidia’s strong results last night and today’s jobs report.Tech stocks are rallying strongly, after Nvidia cooled fears of a bursting AI bubble by beating expectations last night.The news that more jobs were added across America in September than expected has also bolstered confidence about the health of the US economy.Reuters helpfully has the details:The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 428.7 points, or 0.
93%, at the open to 46567.51.The S&P 500 rose 95.8 points, or 1.44%, at the open to 6737.
93, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 492.8 points, or 2.18%, to 23057.001 at the opening bell.Isaac Stell, investment manager at Wealth Club, is also confident the US Federal Reserve won’t deliver a pre-Christmas rate cut:“US job growth blew past expectations in September painting a rosy pre-shutdown picture and delivering the largest jobs gain in 5 months.
Despite the data already being out of date, this will be the only major jobs release prior to the Fed’s end of year meeting.Given the Fed minutes showed hesitancy within the ranks when it comes to a final interest rate cut in 2025, the strength of this jobs report will likely ensure nothing changes.So, the sleigh bells will not be ringing this December at the Fed.Instead of a perfectly wrapped rate cut, the US consumer is likely to be met with a lump of coal.”Average earnings growth slowed in September, today’s jobs report shows, in a blow to US workers.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $36.67 in September, down from 0.3% growth in August.Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.
8%,Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, says today’s US jobs report is “unlikely to tip the balance to a December cut”,Shah explains:“Despite the fact that today’s jobs report is very backward looking, its making markets move,Equities and bonds seem to be picking the parts of the jobs release they like,Equities like the fact that payrolls were stronger than expected, suggesting the economy is still on a firm footing, while the bond market likes the rise in unemployment and slowdown in wage growth which may keep the case for a December Fed cut just about alive.
Overall though, in the face of so much FOMC hawkishness and without any further jobs reports ahead of the December FOMC meeting, today’s jobs release is unlikely to tip the balance to a December cut.Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month are rising, reports Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.A cut still isn’t seen as likely, though.Brooks explains:There is some nuance to this report.The unemployment rate jumped to its highest level since 2021 at 4.
4% from 4.3%, and there were revisions to the August payrolls number, which fell to -4k from 22k initially.Added to this, more timely data, including continuing claims rose to 1.97mn, which is a mid-cycle high.This is an interesting development, and the market is boosting the chance of a Fed rate cut in its wake.
Bond yields are falling across the curve in the US, the dollar has given back most of today’s gains, and the market has repriced the chance of a Fed rate cut next month from 25% to 37% after the payrolls release.This report is significant, since we won’t get an October reading for payrolls, and the November report will not be released until after the Fed’s December meeting.Thus, this is the last labour market report before the next Fed meeting.A rising unemployment rate could trigger a cut, since the Fed has a dual mandate to maintain price stability and full employment.Some more timely employment data has also been released, showing that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week.
The number of fresh ‘initial claims’ for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to 220,000 in the week ending on 15 November, the Labor Department has reported.Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, says today’s jobs report is better than expected, meaning it is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates in December.James says:“Today’s delayed September payrolls report came in better than expected, but there is still evidence of continued softness in the US jobs market.Nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%.
“On the face of it, this jobs figure seems a marked improvement and is ahead of expectations, but it is worth noting the downward revisions to what had already been disappointing numbers in the months prior.July’s nonfarm payrolls figure was revised down by 7,000 to 72,000, while August’s dropped from 22,000 into negative territory, at -4,000 – a combined 33,000 lower.A subdued pace of job creation has become somewhat of a norm in recent months, and while September has surprised on the upside, the ongoing data uncertainty leaves a large question mark over the true state of the market.The Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the October print will not be released as the data collection did not take place during the government shutdown.That suggests today’s release will be the final official labour market update before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on 10 December.
The jobless rate across the US has risen higher than expected too.Today’s jobs report shows the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, up from 4.3% in August.The number of people classed as unemployed rose to 7.
603m, up from 7.384m in August.The BLS says:These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 4.1%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.9m.
Newsflash: The US economy added more jobs than forecast in September, as America’s jobs market picked up after a summer lull.September’s official employment report, delayed since the start of October by the US government shutdown, shows that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 119,000 in September.That’s more than twice as many jobs as expected, thanks to gains in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance.Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government, though.But there’s bad news too.
The jobs reports from July and August have been revised down, to show that the US economy actually lost jobs in August (!).The Bureau for Labor Statistics explains:The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000.With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.
Fish, cheese or chicken? Ravinder Bhogal’s recipes for warming winter pies
When the temperature takes a nosedive, few things compete with a just-baked pie. Don’t be daunted by social media images of perfect, artistic ones; a pie will taste just as good whether it’s rustically homespun or exactingly decorated and carved. Ultimately, what is more important is the integrity of the ingredients (both the casing and the filling). As pastry or potatoes are such a large part of the equation, invest in the best, and make sure puff pastry is all butter and filo is generously lubricated with melted butter. And, if you’re serving your pie with mash, you want it lump-free, properly seasoned and enriched with butter and cream
I’m vegetarian, he’s a carnivore: what can I cook that we’ll both like? | Kitchen aide
I’m a lifelong vegetarian, but my boyfriend is a dedicated carnivore. How can I cook to please us both? Victoria, by email “I have three words for you, Victoria,” says Anna Ansari, author of Silk Roads, who grew up in a predominantly vegetarian household: “Di si xian.” Typical of northern China, this stir-fry of aubergine, potato and peppers (otherwise known as the “three treasures”) is laced with soy, Shoaxing wine, white pepper, sugar, cornflour and, in Ansari’s case, doubanjiang. She also adds tofu (the fourth treasure, if you will) for “a rounded, one-pot/wok dinner” to eat with steamed rice. “It reminds me of being a teenager in Beijing, far from home and in need of warmth and comfort,” she says, and we could all do with some of that right now
José Pizarro’s recipe for braised lamb and kale cazuela with beans
My mum, Isabel, has always cooked slowly. Life on the family farm was busy, so a pot of lamb would often be bubbling away while she worked and, by the time we all sat down for lunch, the whole house smelled incredible. November takes me straight back there. It is the month for food that warms you, dishes made to sit in the centre of the table and to bring everyone close. Lamb shoulder loves a slow cook, turning soft and rich, especially when cooked with alubias blancas (white beans) to soak up the sauce, while a good splash of oloroso gives it a deeper, rounder flavour than any red wine ever could
Georgina Hayden’s quick and easy recipe for roast hake with caper anchovy butter | Quick and easy
I love this one-tray dinner; it feels elegant but easy, and worthy of both a midweek meal and if you are entertaining. The punchy anchovy and garlic butter does all the hard work, and gives the impression of more effort than was actually exerted. But what to serve it with, I hear you ask? Well, it wouldn’t be out of place with creamy mashed potato, buttery polenta or a salad. Just make sure to baste the fish halfway through cooking, to get all the flavour and juices back into it.Prep 10 min Cook 30 min Serves 42 garlic cloves, peeled5 anchovies 4 tbsp capers ½ bunch chives 1 lemon 90g unsalted butter, cut into cubesSea salt and black pepper250g sweet heart cabbage, or other greens2 onions, peeled and halved2 tbsp olive oil4 150g hake or cod fillets, skinned and, if need be, pin-bonedHeat the oven to 220C (200C fan)/425F/gas 7
Sami Tamimi’s recipes for prawn and tomato stew with fregola, and herby quick-pickled vegetable salad
Hearty and warming, this prawn and tomato stew with fregola is a comforting bowl, with the fresh pesto brightening every bite. It pairs beautifully with a crisp, fragrant, quick-pickled vegetable salad; the freshness cuts through the richness of the stew perfectly. I’ve always loved leafy, lively salads, and I could honestly eat one with every meal, every day.Prep 20 min Cook 50 min Serves 4220g cherry tomatoes 60ml olive oil 1 large onion, peeled and finely chopped (180g)3 garlic cloves, peeled and crushed2cm piece fresh ginger, peeled and finely grated (15g)1 green chilli, finely chopped, seeds and all1½ tsp coriander seeds, lightly crushed in a mortar1 tsp cumin seeds, lightly crushed in a mortar6 cardamom pods, lightly bashed 15g dill, finely chopped2 tsp tomato paste400g tinned chopped tomatoes Salt and black pepper 120g fregola 400g frozen king prawns, defrosted, or fresh, peeled and deveinedFor the coriander pesto20g coriander, roughly chopped1 green chilli, finely chopped, seeds and all35g pine nuts, lightly toasted 3 tbsp olive oil1 lemon, zest finely grated to get 1½ tsp, then cut into wedges, to servePut a large saute pan on a high heat. Toss the tomatoes with a teaspoon of oil and, once the pan is very hot, add the tomatoes and cook, shaking the pan a few times, for about five minutes, until blistered and deeply charred all over
How to make risotto alla milanese – recipe | Felicity Cloake's Masterclass
Risotto alla milanese is, like the city it calls home, elegantly simple, but very rich. The saffron that gives the dish its striking colour is rightly expensive (it takes about 150 flowers to produce a mere gram), but you don’t need much and, though it’s often served alongside osso buco, I think it makes a fine meal on its own with a bitter-leaf salad.Prep 5 min Cook 30 min Serves 41 onion 75g butter, or 15g butter plus 60g bone marrow350g risotto rice (carnaroli, arborio, vialone nano)1 litre beef stock, or chicken or vegetable stock75ml dry white wine (see step 4)1 level tsp saffron threads75g finely grated parmesan, or grana padano or a vegetarian alternativePeel and finely chop the onion; the aim is for it almost to disappear into the dish, rather than remaining as distinct chunks, so take your time over doing this (you could substitute two shallots, if you prefer – their sweetness works particularly well with the flavour of the wine and cheese).Melt a generous tablespoon of the butter in a frying pan set over a medium-low heat, then fry the chopped onion until soft, golden and limp, but not coloured.Turn the heat up to medium-high, add the rice and fry, stirring constantly, until the grains are hot and starting to turn translucent around their edges
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