The IMF reckons the global economy remains ‘in flux’, but the Trump effect is real – and Australians aren’t fooled | Greg Jericho
The latest IMF world economic outlook released on Wednesday does not mention “Trump” once in its 166 pages, but he is all over the report as his economic policies continue to make life difficult for everyone.But while the IMF reports Trump’s impact on the global economy is yet to be fully realised, Australian holidaymakers have already made their judgment and are deserting the US in droves.The IMF always likes to be polite.It titled the October 2025 world economic outlook “Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim” rather than as I would have: “Trump remains dim, so who the hell knows what will happen”.Perhaps the worst aspect of Trump is how his actions, whether political, economic or social, are regarded with initial concern, but then many in the media, and even our government, desperately try to suggest nothing has changed.
But things are not normal,Whether it be calling for the jailing of the Chicago mayor and Illinois governor or boasting of extrajudicial killings, or suggesting to US generals that they should use US cities “as training grounds for our military”, things in the US are very far from normal,You would think our government, which is now spending billions on Aukus, might reflect that the US is quickly being run by an increasingly authoritarian regime and ponder this disconnect from normality,But no,The IMF notes that the world economy is not immune to this disconnect.
The initial Trump tariffs announcements in April caused great consternation across the global economy and share markets.And yet largely the impact has been muted.Investors mostly have carried on, ignoring that while the tariffs may not be what Trump initially announced, they remain massively higher than they have been for decades:If the graph does not display click hereIn April the IMF estimated that the US economy would grow just 1.8%; now it has revised that up to 2.0%.
Similarly in April the IMF thought Australia would be hurt in the crossfire between the US and China and downgraded its estimate for Australia’s economic growth to 1.6%.Now it has been revised up to 1.8%:If the graph does not display click hereBut we are not back to normal, and no one should think we are.The IMF notes that while trade uncertainty is less than it was in April, compared to any other time, chaos reigns.
Yes, US trade policy is about half as uncertain as it was in April, but remains roughly 3,860% more uncertain than it was a year ago:If the graph does not display click hereThe main reason neither the US nor global economy have nose-dived due to the Trump administration’s policies is that he telegraphed them so obviously that everyone brought forward orders to get them in place before the tariffs came into effect.The IMF notes that “this gave a temporary boost to global activity in early 2025”.Some investors and our government may be treating the Trump situation as “normal” but it is clear Australians themselves have not been fooled.This week, the overseas arrivals and departures figures for August showed we are back travelling overseas in record numbers, while the figure for tourists coming to Australia continues to slowly recover from Covid:If the graph does not display click hereWhile you may have been observing your friends’ Instagram posts from their holidays in the northern hemisphere, chances are a lot fewer are from the US than once was the case:If the graph does not display click hereGenerally, Australians’ travelling habits since the pandemic have moved away from the US.In the past year, 28% fewer travelled to the US than we did in the year before the pandemic.
The only other places with a bigger drop are Russia, Israel and New Caledonia – three countries currently involved in war or civil unrest.The latest figures, however, also show the huge Trump effect.Ten per cent fewer Australians travelled to the US in August this year than they did last year.That was the only drop among our 10 most common travel destinations.And it was not just a one-month abnormality.
Travel to the US during June, July and August was also down 3% compared with last year:If the graph does not display click hereThe Trump effect is real.It is not just Australians who have discarded the US.Last year Tourism Economics forecast that international arrivals to the US would rise 9% in 2025; now it forecasts an 8.2% fall.Across the global economy uncertainly abounds and the IMF suggests things remain “in flux”.
But people around the world, including Australians, have no such confusion.They are certain Trump has made the US less attractive and, unlike investors and a government continuing to hold tight to Aukus, they are not regarding his authoritarian rhetoric and policies as normal.Greg Jericho is a Guardian columnist and policy director at the Centre for Future Work
The gospel according to Peter Thiel: why the tech svengali is obsessed with the antichrist
Hello, and welcome to TechScape. For the past week, my brain has been marinating in billionaire Peter Thiel’s byzantine musings about the antichrist and Armageddon. At this point, I’m pickled.Why, you might ask, does it matter what a billionaire thinks about the antichrist? Good question!To help us understand, my colleagues Johana Bhuiyan, Dara Kerr and Nick Robins-Early have reported on a series of talks given by billionaire political svengali and tech investor Thiel:Over the past month, Thiel has hosted four lectures on the downtown waterfront of San Francisco philosophizing about who the antichrist could be and warning that Armageddon is coming. Thiel, who describes himself as a “small-o Orthodox Christian”, believes the harbinger of the end of the world could already be in our midst and that things such as international agencies, environmentalism and guardrails on technology could quicken its rise
Instagram to bring in version of PG-13 system to protect children, says Meta
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From Tuesday Microsoft will no longer offer free support as standard for Windows 10, an operating system that is used by millions of computer and laptop owners around the world.Figures for September suggest four in 10 of those using Microsoft Windows worldwide were still using Windows 10, despite the introduction of its successor, Windows 11, in 2021.After 14 October 2025, Microsoft will no longer provide standard free software updates, security fixes or technical assistance to Windows 10 PCs.This means computers running the software will still work but it will steadily become more vulnerable to viruses and malware as bugs and security holes are discovered.Microsoft says the more up-to-date system, Windows 11, “meets the current demands for heightened security by default”
Cyber-attacks rise by 50% in past year, UK security agency says
“Highly significant” cyber-attacks rose by 50% in the past year and the UK’s security services are now dealing with a new nationally significant attack more than every other day, figures from the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) have revealed.In what officials described as “a call to arms”, national security officials and ministers are urging all organisations, from the smallest businesses to the largest employers, to draw up contingency plans for the eventuality that “your IT infrastructure [is] crippled tomorrow and all your screens [go] blank”.The NCSC, which is part of GCHQ, said “highly sophisticated” China, “capable and irresponsible” Russia, Iran and North Korea were the main state threats, in its annual review published on Tuesday. The rise is being driven by ransomware attacks, often by criminal actors seeking money, and society’s increasing dependence on technology which increases the number of hackable targets.The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, the security minister, Dan Jarvis, and the technology and business secretaries, Liz Kendall and Peter Kyle have written to the leaders of hundreds of the largest British companies urging them to make cyber-resilience a board-level responsibility and warning that hostile cyber-activity in the UK has grown “more intense, frequent and sophisticated”
Equity threatens mass direct action over use of actors’ images in AI content
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