China’s economic growth slows amid Trump tariff war and property woes
China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in a year in the latest quarter amid a trade war with the US and long-running woes in its property market.Fragile domestic demand has left China’s economy heavily reliant on manufacturing and trade, at a time of mounting tensions with the Donald Trump administration.GDP rose by 4.8% year on year between July and September, down from the second-quarter growth rate of 5.2%.
It expanded by 1.1% in the third quarter compared with the second, the same as the revised growth rate for that quarter.“September activity data showed continued weakness in domestic demand, partly due to poor business and household confidence,” noted Kelvin Lam, the senior China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.Investment growth slowed, with property investment diving 13.9% year on year in September, after falling 12.
9% in August,Consumer demand was still muted, with real growth in retail sales slowing sharply to 3,5%, from 4,1% previously,Industrial production was a bright spot, rising by 6.
5% in September, better than expected.Despite the simmering trade war with Washington, trade also beat analysts’ forecasts, accounting for just over a quarter of the headline growth, broadly unchanged from the second quarter – the onset of the Trump “reciprocal” tariff saga.China’s exports to the US fell by 27% year on year last month but shipments to the EU, south-east Asia and Africa grew by 14%, 15.6% and 56.4% respectively as the country diversified away from the American market.
Beijing could use this to its advantage in talks between its vice-premier He Lifeng and the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, in Malaysia this week, and a potential meeting between the countries’ presidents, Trump and Xi Jinping, in South Korea at a later date.Chinese “export orders have risen quite strongly, which bodes well for future production growth,” Lam said.“The export sector has been performing better than we previously expected despite higher import tariffs.”The headline economic growth figure matched analysts’ expectations, and kept the economy on track for China’s 5% growth target this year.However, questions remain over whether there will be further stimulus measures from Beijing and local authorities.
Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotion“With China on track to hit this year’s growth target, we could see less policy urgency,” said Lynn Song, the chief economist for Greater China at ING.“But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed.”A debt crisis has dented the once-booming property sector.The market weakened again, with further policy measures needed, analysts said.New home prices extended their declines in September, while the volume of residential property transactions fell by 12.
5%.China’s four-day “fourth plenum” meeting – where Communist party leaders gathered to hammer out the country’s next five-year plan – began on Monday.The official Xinhua news agency said that, in a speech at the meeting, Xi “expounded on the party leadership’s draft proposals” for the plan, which will cover 2026-2030.It did not provide any details of the plan.
Reform suspends four Kent councillors after Guardian publishes leaked video of fierce infighting
Reform UK has suspended four councillors on its showcase county council after a leaked video showing bitter divisions in their ranks.Councillors on Kent county council were seen in the footage, first published by the Guardian, complaining about “backbiting” and being ignored by their leader, Linden Kemkaran, who told them to “fucking suck it up” if they did not agree with decisions made by her.A spokesperson for Nigel Farage’s party said on Monday morning that four councillors on the council, one of 10 where Reform won outright control in local elections earlier this year, had been suspended.“Councillors Paul Thomas, Oliver Bradshaw, Bill Barrett and Maxine Fothergill have had the whip suspended pending investigation, following evidence that they brought the party into disrepute,” said the spokesperson.The suspensions now mean that, from winning 57 seats in elections in May, Reform has 50 councillors with the whip
Labour should return to its social-democrat principles | Letter
Regarding George Monbiot’s article (Here’s what you need to know about Starmer’s illiberal protest curbs: they would have killed the Labour party at birth, 13 October), in 2023, GroenLinks (Greens) and PvdA (Labour) in the Netherlands decided to form a political alliance, unifying the centre-left. Together, they planned to tackle the housing crisis and the cost of living crisis, and to invest in the green economy. This merger didn’t happen because PvdA made a sudden left turn into radicalism. It didn’t happen because GroenLinks diluted its principles to improve its chances of forming a government. It happened because these two parties realised that the climate crisis and the cost of living crisis go hand in hand and cannot be left to the mercy of the centre-right VVD (Conservatives) or extreme-right PVV (Freedom party), which led the country through two years of utter chaos and infighting
Keir Starmer will attend Cop30 in Brazil, No 10 confirms
Keir Starmer will travel to the Amazon rainforest for the UN climate summit next month, Downing Street has confirmed, after weeks of speculation that he would not.No 10 said on Monday the prime minister would fly to Belém, in Brazil, for what experts say will be the most significant Cop meeting since Paris in 2015.Aides had advised Starmer, who has previously been criticised for spending so much time out of the country, not to attend the summit.However, his spokesperson said on Monday: “The prime minister will attend the Cop30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, next month, because net zero is the economic opportunity of the 21st century, one that has the potential to reignite our industrial heartlands, create good jobs for the future, and lower bills in the long term.“That’s why we’re restoring the UK as a global leader on climate action and green growth
Labour deputy leadership contest may only cause more trouble for Starmer
When Lucy Powell got a phone call from a withheld number in her constituency office in Manchester on the day Angela Rayner resigned, Powell told her staff: “This is me getting the sack.” Never would the former Commons leader have believed less than two months later that she might be on the brink of returning as Labour’s deputy leader.Her rival, Bridget Phillipson, also never expected to be in this position. Hurt by some of the internal briefing against her position as education secretary, she debated for more than a day whether to join the race at all. Being cast as the favoured candidate has not been comfortable
Reform UK reviews if it underpaid VAT on tickets and merchandise
Reform UK has launched an investigation into whether it underpaid VAT on thousands of pounds of ticket sales and merchandise.Nigel Farage’s party, which is leading in the public opinion polls, said it was reviewing its tax affairs after a Times investigation alleged it may have breached the law and could face a fine from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC).Political parties are “likely to qualify” for an exemption from VAT, including on membership fees and donations, according to HMRC. However, they are required to pay the tax on certain activities such as ticket and merchandise sales over the value of £90,000.Reform is understood to have exceeded the threshold last autumn due to ticket sales for its well-attended party conference in Birmingham, according to the Times
Keir Starmer pressed not to slash UK contribution to global aid fund
Pressure is mounting on Keir Starmer not to cut the UK’s contribution to the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria after polling found 62% of Britons believe the government should maintain or increase its support.The prime minister must decide this year whether to maintain the UK contribution at £1bn or implement a cut in line with recent reductions to the aid budget. A cut of 20% has been rumoured.The dilemma is acute since the UK is co-chairing the fund’s replenishment summit, due to be held on 21 November in South Africa on the margins of the G20 annual summit. It is possible Starmer will not travel to the G20 but instead send his deputy, David Lammy, asking him to take up the prime minister’s duties as he did at the UN general assembly last month
China’s economic growth slows amid Trump tariff war and property woes
Gucci owner Kering to sell beauty division to L’Oréal for €4bn
B&M ousts finance chief as it warns again on profits after £7m accounts error
What’s gone wrong at WPP? The crown slips at world’s biggest advertising group
Experiential entertainment is having a gold rush but commercial success is far from certain
French theme park firm won UK government support despite far-right ties