Bank’s rate decision leaves frustrated Reeves praying for an August cut
Last week’s spending review revealed Rachel Reeves’s plan for reviving the UK’s struggling economy – but one of the most powerful levers for unleashing growth lies out of her reach, at the Bank of England.Thursday’s no-change decision on interest rates from the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) was widely expected; but the chancellor and her colleagues will be fervently hoping for a cut in August, perhaps sooner – and more before the year is up.The Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, had already warned the pace of rate cuts looked uncertain, as a result of Donald Trump’s trade wars.The alarming prospect of a fresh conflict in the Middle East is likely to have made MPC members even more cautious.The minutes from Thursday’s meeting suggested the MPC would “remain sensitive to heightened unpredictability in the economic and geopolitical environment,” and would “continue to update its assessment of risks to the economy”.
Evidence of rising food prices in the latest inflation data is also likely to have preyed on their minds – driven in part by climactic challenges, including the poor harvests that triggered the largest annual increase in chocolate costs on record,Inflation is expected to remain around its current level of 3,4% for the rest of the year – well above the Bank’s 2% target,Yet the minutes did also suggest the balance of opinion is shifting towards loosening policy, as the jobs market continues to slow down, helping to alleviate concerns about bumper wage deals driving up inflation,The MPC now expects the impact of Trump’s tariffs to be less dramatic than at its last forecast in May, given various concessions and deals – though they stress that “trade policy uncertainty would nevertheless continue to have an impact on the UK economy”.
Dave Ramsden, deputy governor, voted for a quarter-point cut, to 4% – joining the external members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra, both of whom wanted a bigger-than-consensus half-point reduction in May,The paragraph of the minutes that set out their argument pointed to the fact that “the cumulative evidence from a range of labour market data pointed to a material further loosening in labour market conditions”,Ramsden has previously been slightly ahead of the consensus in moving to cut – he was ready for rates to come down in May last year, three months before the eventual reduction in August; and wanted to see a cut in December, that didn’t happen until February,Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionThe other two doves voted for a bumper half-point cut in May, so it is no surprise that they would have liked to have seen another reduction on Thursday,Dhingra told MPs on the Treasury select committee recently that she was becoming increasingly concerned about the risk that holding policy “too tight” for an extended period – ie keeping rates high – risked undermining the economy’s potential to grow.
Bailey confirmed alongside Thursday’s no-change decision that rates remained on a “gradual downward path”.That appears to point to another quarter-point cut in August.Reeves will be hoping the MPC picks up the pace.
England and India face red-hot series opener and Jasprit Bumrah conundrum
If there was an enduring image from the last Test series between India and England, it was probably that of Jasprit Bumrah detonating Ollie Pope’s stumps in Visakhapatnam – a feet-seeking yorker so ridiculously sweet that the Food Standards Agency could have marked it red on their traffic-light system.A year and a bit on from England’s 4-1 defeat in India on Friday, Bumrah remains the standout in the two attacks going into the first of five blockbuster Tests, beginning at Headingley on Friday. Even saying this sells him a bit short. Of the 86 bowlers to go past 200 Test wickets, none have done so at a lower average than Bumrah’s 19.4
Carlos Alcaraz beats the heat in epic comeback against Munar at Queen’s Club
On a day of hot heads and high emotion, Carlos Alcaraz proved once again to be a master of escapology in the longest match at Queen’s Club for 34 years. With temperatures hovering over 30C on Andy Murray Arena, the Spaniard was 4-2 down in the final set, having lost four games in a row. To add to his sense of peril and woe, his serve was also misfiring and he had just hit his 50th unforced error. Yet he found a way – just as he had during the French Open final earlier this month.A few minutes – and a series of inspired winners – later Alcaraz was shaking hands with his compatriot Jaume Munar having won 6-4, 6-7 (7), 7-5 in an epic that lasted a little under three hours and 30 minutes
Royal Ascot: Trawlerman lands big one in Gold Cup with memories of Sagaro
It was simple but ruthlessly effective as Trawlerman and William Buick made all the running to win the Gold Cup on Thursday. The Gosden stable’s seven-year-old faced two four-year-old rivals with a touch more class but no experience of racing at two and a half miles and when Buick challenged them to catch him with a quarter of a mile to run, neither Illinois nor Candelari could summon a response.Candelari was a spent force with half a mile left, while Illinois’s brief effort in the home straight scarcely made an impression on Trawlerman’s lead as he galloped on relentlessly for the line. He had a seven-length advantage at the post and it was seven more back to Dubai Future in third.“It was the only way we were going to win,” said John Gosden, who has won the feature event on the first three days of the meeting
Ben Stokes calls on England to adapt better ‘when we’re up against the wall’
Ben Stokes may have described England’s recent lack of Test action as “a bit odd” but playing just one game in the past six months has given the side space to reconsider their approach before the series against India.Stokes has won 23 of his 33 games in charge while losing 12 and insisted: “I don’t think it’s arrogant to say that we’ve been good over the last three years.” But with England’s next 10 Tests coming against either India – starting at Headingley on Friday – or Australia they have prepared for potential adversity.“We’ve had a lot of time to speak about what we want to do as a team and where we want to take ourselves,” Stokes said. “We’ve had time to identify areas where we know we are incredibly strong, but also areas that we think we need to get better at
Royal Ascot 2025: Trawlerman nets biggest prize with Gold Cup triumph – as it happened
That’s it for the third day and what a brave and brilliant performance from Trawlerman in the Gold Cup. I’m out of here. I need to sort my outfit for tomorrow’s trip to the races. Don’t worry I’ll be working hard – inbetween sips of champagne – and bringing you surprise guests and lots of reminiscences on Saturday when I’ll see you back here. Good luck one and all tomorrow
Kicking off Lions tour against Argentina in Ireland is profitable for everyone
This is about the game time and the cash. In the first place, Andy Farrell has 38 players he needs to use in the first three games of the British and Irish Lions tour and the first instalment will be before a less than capacity crowd at the Aviva Stadium against Argentina on Friday night. In the second place, it is about filling the coffers of the Lions machine and the four home unions who are part of the caravan.Gate receipts from this game will yield in the region of €3m (£2.55m) after costs, which goes towards the Lions’ bottom line, with a dividend to come to the unions involved
Australian supermarket tahini taste test: one of the worst is ‘thick enough to build a sandcastle’
The secret to crisp tofu | Kitchen aide
José Pizarro’s recipe for broad bean and mint tortilla with a manchego crust
Rukmini Iyer’s quick and easy recipe for tandoori chicken skewers with coriander chutney | Quick and easy
Pastry perfection: Anna Higham’s recipes for chicken and herb pie and foldover pissaladière
How to make chocolate chip cookies – recipe | Felicity Cloake's Masterclass