AI could replace 3m low-skilled jobs in the UK by 2035, research finds

A picture


Up to 3m low-skilled jobs could disappear in the UK by 2035 because of automation and AI, according to a report by a leading educational research charity.The jobs most at risk are those in occupations such as trades, machine operations and administrative roles, the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) said.Highly skilled professionals, on the other hand, were forecast to be more in demand as AI and technological advances increase workloads “at least in the short to medium term”.Overall, the report expects the UK economy to add 2.3m jobs by 2035, but unevenly distributed.

The findings stand in contrast to other recent research suggesting AI will affect highly skilled, technical occupations such as software engineering and management consultancy more than trades and manual work,Research from King’s College published in October estimated that “higher-paying firms” suffered job losses of roughly 9,4% between 2021 and 2025, with much of this period falling after the release of ChatGPT in late 2022,The UK government lists management consultants, psychologists and legal professionals among the occupations “most exposed to AI”, whereas “sports players”, “roofers” and “bricklayers” are less likely to be replaced,Last week, the law firm Clifford Chance revealed it was laying off 10% of business services staff at its London base – about 50 roles – attributing the change partly to AI.

The head of PwC also publicly walked back plans to hire 100,000 people between 2021 and 2026, saying “the world is different” and artificial intelligence had changed its hiring needs.Jude Hillary, one of the report’s authors, said that NFER’s work – which is based on longer-term economic modelling of the UK labour market – suggests predictions about AI-driven job losses may be premature.He suggested layoffs attributed to the uptake of AI may be driven by a sluggish UK economy, factors such as rising national insurance costs and employers being risk-averse.“There’s this general uncertainty about where things are going, how long it takes to improve.There’s lots of talk about AI and automation without any real substance about it.

Lots of employers are worried about it,” Hillary said.Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotion“And probably what’s happening is a lot of employers are just sitting tight, I would say.”Hillary said he expected the overall effects of AI on the UK workforce to be complex: increasing the demand for some professional roles; decreasing the demand for many entry-level roles; and eroding the demand for many lower-skilled professions.This latter, he said, was most concerning, as it would be difficult for people who lost lower-skilled jobs to reskill appropriately in a changing economy.“The additional jobs that we’re getting in the labour market tend to be professional and associate professionals … Displaced workers, the one to three million that we talk about in our report, face significant barriers to get back into the labour market,” he said.

businessSee all
A picture

The latest inflation figures offer no joy – except to the gas producers whose windfall profits remain largely untouched | Greg Jericho

The latest inflation figures showed a jump in the growth of average prices from 3.6% to 3.8%. But they also indicate just how much our economy is caught up in the ramifications of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, which sent gas prices higher – and with it our electricity prices.The October consumer price index figures were a turning point for data in Australia

A picture

UK borrowing costs fall after early release of budget forecasts – business live

Follow Rachel Reeves’ budget as it happens, and all the details of the mistakenly released OBR forecasts, with Graeme Wearden and Andrew Sparrow on our politics live blog:In the Canary Wharf offices of Saxo UK there is a race to understand the implications of the leaked forecasts - mixed with laughter at the hapless Office for Budget Responsibility.As well as sterling, there was some movement on UK bond markets after the leak. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt - a measure of the cost of government borrowing - dropped quickly from 4.5% to about 4.42%

A picture

Warner Music signs deal with AI song generator Suno after settling lawsuit

Warner Music has signed a licensing deal with the artificial intelligence song generator Suno after settling a copyright infringement lawsuit it launched against the service a year agoWarner, the world’s third-largest music company and home to acts including Coldplay, Charli XCX and Ed Sheeran, is the first of the major record labels to partner officially with the company.As part of their agreement, users will be allowed to create AI-generated songs on Suno via simple text prompts using the voices, names and likenesses of the Warner acts who choose to opt in to the service.Robert Kyncl, the chief executive of Warner Music Group, said the deal showed that artificial intelligence could be “pro-artist” when it is licensed to “reflect the value of music”.“This landmark pact with Suno is a victory for the creative community that benefits everyone,” he said. “With Suno rapidly scaling, both in users and monetisation, we’ve seized this opportunity to shape models that expand revenue and deliver new fan experiences

A picture

Pets at Home boss says ‘urgent and necessary’ action needed as profits dive

The boss of Pets at Home has said “urgent and necessary” action needs to be taken as the ailing retailer reported that its half-year profits slumped by more than a third.The group is still looking for a chief executive after the abrupt departure of Lyssa McGowan in September. The interim executive chair, Ian Burke, said the chain, which sells pet products, animals, veterinary care and grooming services, had to “return to our retaining roots” to revitalise the 34-year-old business.On Wednesday the group reported underlying profit before tax had slumped 33.5% to £36

A picture

Reserve Bank could raise interest rates as early as May after inflation climbs to 3.8%

The Reserve Bank of Australia could be forced to hike interest rates as early as May, economists say, after inflation climbed to 3.8% in the year to October, from 3.6% in the month before.The latest bad news on cost of living was accompanied by a shocking 37% annual jump in power bills as generous state government subsidies rolled off, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed.As the Coalition again used parliamentary question time to attack the government for its record on electricity prices, Jim Chalmers flagged he could announce further energy bill relief for households in the upcoming midyear budget

A picture

Joan Templeman, wife of billionaire Richard Branson, dies aged 80

Joan Templeman, the wife of British billionaire Sir Richard Branson, has died at the age of 80.Branson announced her death on Tuesday in a post on social media, saying he was “heartbroken to share that Joan, my wife and partner for 50 years, has passed away.”“She was the most wonderful mum and grandmum our kids and grandkids could have ever wished for. She was my best friend, my rock, my guiding light, my world.”Branson is the founder of the Virgin Atlantic airline, space tourism company Virgin Galactic and satellite launcher Virgin Orbit