Just in: Hiring at US companies slowed sharply last month – another sign that America’s jobs market is cooling.Company payroll operator ADP reports that private sector employment increased by 54,000 jobs in August, barely half the 106,000 jobs created in July.“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” said Dr Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP, adding:“A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.”ADP reports that manufacturing employment fell by 7,000 jobs last month, while construction added 16,000 and natural resources/mining payrolls rose by 4,000.Payrolls across services companies rose by 42,000; here’s a breakdown:Trade/transportation/utilities -17,000Information 7,000Financial activities -2,000Professional/business services 15,000Education/health services -12,000Leisure/hospitality 50,000Other services 1,000Time for a recap.

Evidence is mounting that America’s jobs market slowed over the summer, ahead of tomorrow’s eagerly awaited non-farm payroll report.Today we have learned:Private job creations slowed in August, with payrolls rising by just 54,000 last month, according to data provider ADPLayoffs jumped, with US-based employers announcing 85,979 job cuts last month,More Americans sought unemployment benefit in the final week of August, with the initial claims total rising by 8,000, to 237,000.On the ADP payrolls slowdown, Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, says:“The report should solidify the expectations for a rate cut later this month and increase the odds of another cut this year.However, the drop in bond yields may be limited by the elevated level of inflation and the overall solid pace of GDP growth.”The latest economic signals from the UK are worrying too:Britain’s construction sector is suffering its longest continuous downturn since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Car sales dipped by 2% last monthTwo thirds of UK companies cut their proft margins in response to this year’s rise in employment taxes, with nearly half cutting jobsCalm has returned to the bond markets today, after the sell-off earlier this weeks abated.The yield, or interest rate, on UK 30-year bonds has dipped back to 5.56%, having hit 5.75% yesterday – the highest since 1998.Back in the UK, registrations of electric vans have doubled even as the overall market shrinks.

The SMMT has reported that UK demand for new light commercial vehicles shrank by -13.3% in August with 14,365 new vans, pickups and 4x4s joining UK road.Volumes have fallen every month this year, a worrying sign for the economy.According to the SMMT, new pickup registrations saw the largest percentage drop, down -25.8% to 1,040 units, impacted by recent fiscal changes to reclassify double-cab pickups as cars for benefit-in-kind and capital allowance purposes.

Sales of battery electric van (BEV) models rose by 109.5% year-on-year, to 1,902 units.Wall Street has opened slightly higher, as traders digest today’s weaker-than-expected private payrolls report.The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 33 points, or 0.07%, to 45,304 in early trading.

The broader S&P 500 share index is up 0.2%.The lower-than-expected ADP reading of 54k signals weakening private sector job growth, amplifying concerns about an economic slowdown, says Aaron Hill, chief analyst from FP Markets:This boosts the likelihood of a dovish Fed policy, putting downward pressure on the US dollar.Lower interest rate expectations reduce the appeal of USD-denominated assets, likely weakening the US dollar against major pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, and pushing the DXY index toward recent lows.Falling US Treasury yields, a common reaction to soft labor data, further erode USD strength.

Historical patterns show similar misses triggering USD declines, and this significant shortfall could drive a notable sell-off in the currency,Further evidence that the US jobs market is weakening has just landed,The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment support has risen to 237,000, in the last week of August,That’s an increase of 8,000 from the previous week,Economists had expected a smaller rise, to 230,000.

Initial claims are seen as a proxy for job losses, and have been at historically low levels in the last few years.The Department of Labor also reports that the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 23 were in New York (+1,430), Texas (+1,230), Illinois (+509), Missouri (+206), and Hawaii (+119).The largest decreases were in Iowa (-1,235), Virginia (-857), Maryland (-562), Pennsylvania (-482), and Connecticut (-455).Today’s (poor) ADP Payroll report is closely watched, ahead of the official US jobs report tomorrow.Investors are poised for the August non-farm payroll report due in 24 hours time, as last month’s showed a shock drop in employment – and prompted Donald Trump to fire the head of the labor statistics board.

54k ADP (68k expected)Can Trump fire the head of ADP?Just in: Hiring at US companies slowed sharply last month – another sign that America’s jobs market is cooling.Company payroll operator ADP reports that private sector employment increased by 54,000 jobs in August, barely half the 106,000 jobs created in July.“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” said Dr Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP, adding:“A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.”ADP reports that manufacturing employment fell by 7,000 jobs last month, while construction added 16,000 and natural resources/mining payrolls rose by 4,000.Payrolls across services companies rose by 42,000; here’s a breakdown:Trade/transportation/utilities -17,000Information 7,000Financial activities -2,000Professional/business services 15,000Education/health services -12,000Leisure/hospitality 50,000Other services 1,000Job cuts at US companies has hit their highest August level since 2020, according to new data from outplacement and coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

US-based employers announced 85,979 job cuts last month, which is 39% more than in July and 13% more than in August 2024.This is another indication that the US labour market cooled over the summer….August’s total was the highest for the month since 2020 when 115,762 job cuts were recorded.After 2020, it is the highest August total since the Great Recession in 2008, when 88,736 cuts were announced.Andrew Challenger, senior vice president and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas, explains:“After the impact of DOGE on the Federal Government, employers are citing economic and market factors as the driver of layoffs.

We’ve also seen a spike in cuts due to operation or store closings and bankruptcies this year compared to last.”The report also shows that companies have announced 892,362 job cuts so far this year, the highest YTD since 2020 when 1,963,458 were announced.It is up 66% from the 536,421 job cuts announced through the first eight months of last year and is up 17% from the 2024 full year total of 761,358.The Bank of England is seeking advice on how to enhance the resilience the UK gilt repo market, and avoid throwing more fuel on a market crisis.The gilt repo market allows banks to borrow money trhough a short-term borrowing arrangement (repurchase agreements, or ‘repo’), using government debt (‘gilts’) as collateral.

The dangers of sudden moves in the gilt market were exposed after Liz Truss’s mini-budget of 2022 – bond prices fell, leading to forced sales for liability-driven investment pensions funds (LDI funds), creating a doom loop.The BoE is considering various measures that could prevent a meltdown, including potentially creating a central clearing counterparty (CCP) to handle repo deals between banks.You can read more here.The Bank explains:The smooth functioning and resilience of government bond markets is fundamental to financial stability and the real economy.Given their role in financing government activity and as a benchmark for the pricing of other financial instruments, such as corporate bonds, government bond markets facilitate the provision of vital services, investment, and sustainable economic growth.

Therefore, it is crucial to ensure that these markets are able to continue functioning during periods of stress and absorb, rather than amplify, shocks.In turn, government bond repo markets are important to the resilience of government bond markets and, hence, to financial stability, given their role in facilitating the flow of cash and gilts across the financial system and as a source of funding for market participants’ leveraged strategies.Amazon has revealed that UK sales rose to £29bn last year, making it slightly larger than Asda, the UK’s third largest supermarket.However, the pace of growth at the group, which operates cloud services and other digital systems for businesses alongside its retail arm, slowed to 7.4% in 2024 from 12.

5% in the prior year.The company now has 75,000 UK employees, about half that of Asda, and says it paid £1bn of UK taxes, up from £932m last year.However that includes business rates, corporation tax and national insurance contributions – and the company does not break down the figure.The government has said it wants to revise the business rates system from next year so that online retail businesses such as Amazon pay more and the burden is eased on high street businesses.However, under its current plans, most large expensive buildings, including hospitals and some department stores and supermarkets will also pay more business rates – alongside the warehouses and offices used by online sellers.

Amazon’s UK Services arm is expected to release its full accounts next week.In 2023, the division paid £18.7m in “current tax” which is understood to have been largely corporation tax.It was the first time since 2020 the division had paid corporation tax.The company received a £7.

8m tax credit in 2022 and a £1.1m credit in 2021 after its investments in infrastructure.In 2024, Amazon said it had invested £1.6bn in infrastructure in the UK, including new warehouses, but some of the tax breaks on that it enjoyed in prior years have now been unwound.The gold price has dipped a little today, away from the record highs set during this week’s bond market turmoil.

Gold is trading at $3,540 per ounce this morning, down 0.5%, having yesterday hit a peak of $3,578.50 per ounce.Goldman Sach’s baseline forecast is that gold hits $4,000 per ounce by mid-2016.But in a note today, they predict it could rise much higher if the independence of the Federal Reserve is damaged, leading to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status, pushing more investors into gold.

Goldman’s analysts write:Should private investors look to diversify more heavily into gold, as have central banks, we see potential upside to gold prices even above our tail risk scenario of $4,500/toz [troy ounce], which itself is already well above our $4,000 mid-2026 baseline, given the very small size of the physical gold ETF market relative to Treasury bonds, at only 1%,For example, we estimate that if 1% of the privately owned US treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000/toz, assuming everything else constant,As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities space,Goldman Sachs expects gold to surge to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026,If the Fed's credibility gets significantly eroded, GS sees gold nearing $5,000.

Gold prices have already doubled in the past three years.https://t.co/N4hfV63WT3 pic.twitter.com/Dyq2bF4hxGWe have disappointing economic news from Germany this morning too.

A group of top German economic institutes have trimmed their growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing headwinds from the US trade war.The Ifo institute now expects gross domestic product to expand by just 0.2% this year, a cut of 0.1 percentage point.Growth is expected to rise to 1.

3% in 2026, a drop of 0.2 percentage points from its previous forecast.The Kiel Institute for the World Economy made similar reductions, cutting its 2025 growth forecast to 0.1% from 0.3% in June.

It now sees GDP rising 1.3% in 2026, down from 1.6% previously.Over in the eurozone, retail sales have dropped again.Retail sales growth in the euro area fell by 0.

5% month-on-month in July, larger than the 0.2% fall expected.Euro area #RetailTrade down by 0.5% in July 2025 over June 2025, up by 2.2% compared with July 2024 https://t.

co/kWbdJ0JyXR pic.twitter.com/kcX7HwwzikTwo thirds of UK companies cut their proft margins in response to this year’s rise in employment taxes, new Bank of England data shows.The BoE’s poll of ‘decision makers’ at UK firms has asked how they adjusted to the rise in employers’ national insurance rates, which kicked in at the start of April.Firms were allowed to select more than one option