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An unexpected unemployment rate rise puts the RBA odds-on to cut the cash rate – but it’s a headache for Jim Chalmers

about 14 hours ago
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Hear that? That’s the sound of the jobs market creaking, if not cracking.Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to a four-year high of 4.5% in September, up from 4.3% the month before.Jim Chalmers is in Washington DC attending a G20 summit, but still found time to put out a statement reminding us that the jobless measure is “still very low by historical standards”.

That’s a fair statement,Not counting the pandemic and its aftermath, you need to go back 17 years to find a lower jobless rate,The jump in the share market after the data release pointed to firming bets that the Reserve Bank was now odds-on to deliver a rate cut at its Melbourne Cup day meeting,But low unemployment is a prize we must not lose, and the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics will be a major worry for the treasurer – as it will be for all Australians,The resilient labour market is the jewel in Labor’s crown when it comes to its economic record, even overshadowing the major decline in living standards that has been a feature of the post-pandemic landscape.

Unemployment at 4,5% is no disaster, but it is very much not part of the plan – and it raises the fear that it could go higher still,The RBA had expected the jobless rate to peak at 4,3% this year and stay there through 2026, which aligns with the budget forecasts,Sign up: AU Breaking News emailTwo-a-half weeks ago the central bank’s monetary policy board held the cash rate as board members fretted that inflation would come in hotter-than-expected in the three months to September.

They will surely be reconsidering their options today, and Thursday’s figures mean the RBA is now favourite to act when it next meets.The chance of a November rate cut jumped from 36% to 64% after the jobs report, according to pricing in financial markets, while the chance of a cut by December jumped from 60% to a near certainty.There were even murmurings in the market on Thursday afternoon of a double rate cut, which is surely premature.Rising inflation and climbing unemployment would be a headache for the central bank.Much now hinges on the September quarter consumer price report on 29 October, but it would have to be pretty bad to stay the central bank’s hand.

The key question is: was September’s labour force data a monthly blip, or the start of something worse?The answers lie in the cross currents that have been shifting below what has been, until now at least, a largely becalmed jobs market.Pat Bustamante, an economist at Westpac, says rapid hiring in government-backed sectors such as aged care and the NDIS helped drive the post-Covid employment boom, despite underwhelming economic growth.That impulse has since faded, and the dynamic has reversed: employment growth has slowed even as the economy has picked up.Which means much depends on whether the private sector, which tends not to be as labour-intensive, can maintain enough hiring momentum to keep unemployment low – something RBA board members also discussed at their recent meeting.If it can’t, then Bustamante calculates that the unemployment rate could reach as high as 4.

8% early next year, which is perilously close to losing all the post-pandemic labour market gains,That’s not something the central bank, or the government, would want to risk,
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French woman in mother of all trademark battles with DC Comics over parenting app Wondermum

A French woman is involved in the mother of all battles with DC Comics for naming her family advice app Wondermum.Lise Sobéron received a letter from the superhero comic book company’s French lawyers on 1 April this year demanding she stop using the name because of its alleged similarity to Wonder Woman.“When I got the letter, I rang my close friends and said: ‘Very funny, guys,’ thinking it was an April fool,” she said. “Then I contacted the lawyers’ office and realised it was no joke. They told me DC Comics objected to the name Wondermum

2 days ago
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Louder than Bombs: Joachim Trier’s thorniest film might be his best

Long before Joachim Trier made the Oscar-winning The Worst Person in the World and this year’s festival megahit Sentimental Value, there was 2015’s Louder than Bombs: a far stranger, slipperier film worth watching for Isabelle Huppert’s spectral turn alone. She plays a character also called Isabelle, a renowned war photographer whose secrets haunt her family three years after her sudden death.Her teenage son Conrad (Devin Druid) still daydreams in class about the car crash that claimed her life, imagining her final, panicked moments. His brother Jonah (Jesse Eisenberg) and father Gene (Gabriel Byrne) know (and conceal) the truth: that her fateful, split-second swerve was an act of suicide.The film’s cacophony of grief and anxious romance erupt within upstate New York, 6,000km away from the Nordic, millennial anomie of Joachim’s informal Oslo trilogy

2 days ago
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Creative Australia awards Khaled Sabsabi $100,000 grant months after dumping from Venice Biennale

Creative Australia has awarded a $100,000 grant to artist Khaled Sabsabi, months after he was controversially dumped and then reinstated by the federal arts body as Australia’s representative for the 2026 Venice Biennale.The grant – one of 16 made under Creative Australia’s Visual Arts, Craft and Design Framework – will fund the creation of a new body of work for a solo exhibition opening in March 2027 at Adelaide’s Samstag Museum of Art, which will also include Sabsabi’s Venice Biennale work.In August, Sabsabi was also awarded a grant by Create NSW for a major new work in western Sydney.The two commissions represent a silver lining in a tumultuous year for Sabsabi, a Lebanese-Australian artist from western Sydney. In February, he and curator Michael Dagostino were announced as Australia’s representatives for the prestigious Venice Biennale; less than a week later they were sacked, after criticism by the Australian and the then shadow arts minister, Claire Chandler, over Sabsabi’s use of imagery in previous artworks of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

3 days ago
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‘The vocals were on another level’: how Counting Crows made Mr Jones

Our first four records had been mostly made in houses in the hills above Los Angeles. August and Everything After was our first major label album, so it was a pretty big deal. Our advance was $3,000 each; I bought a 1971 cherry red VW Karmann Ghia convertible and drove it to LA.I would get up every morning and listen to Pickin’ Up the Pieces by Poco, which is like the Beatles doing country music. I also had this Benny Goodman album that I was listening to a lot – my dad had picked it up as a free giveaway at a Texaco station when I was a kid

3 days ago
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‘A palette unlike anything in the west’: Ben Okri, Yinka Shonibare and more on how Nigerian art revived Britain’s cultural landscape

To mark a new exhibition at Tate Modern, leading British-Nigerian cultural figures trace the impact of their heritage on their work, and consider its growing influence on the world stageSome primal energy was unleashed among Nigerian artists in the years leading up to independence. The century-long reign of colonialism was nearing its end and the people of Nigeria, with its over 300 tribes, its ebullient energy, were poised for a new future in which they would determine the shape and context of their lives.And the people who most articulated that double position, that paradox of modernity and tradition, were artists in all their stripes. Artists across the country, in constant dialogue with one another, created works that evoked their traditions but in a contemporary context. Artists such as Yusuf Grillo in the north, Bruce Onobrakpeya from the midwest, Ben Enwonwu from the east and Twins Seven Seven from the west were remaking the dream of art in a rigorously Nigerian context

4 days ago
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Perfume Genius: ‘I really like body hair! I like a bush. I didn’t even notice Jimmy Fallon censored mine’

The singer on looking like Amelia Earhart, the time he set his mother’s house on fire and his beef with the Octopus Teacher guyEveryone was talking about your pubic hair after it was censored on The Tonight Show. Should we all be showing more or less bush?More! I really like body hair. I like a bush. I like the whole deal. I’m sure if I didn’t have a bush, they wouldn’t have censored it

5 days ago
politicsSee all
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Rachel Reeves says those with broadest shoulders should pay fair share of tax

about 7 hours ago
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Labour ministers met fossil fuel lobbyists 500 times in first year of power, analysis shows

about 9 hours ago
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Reform UK accused of sowing division in Wales in rowdy TV byelection debate

about 11 hours ago
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Drag acts, detractors and true-blue diehards: my weird weekend at a Margaret Thatcher festival

about 11 hours ago
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Proposed UK cuts to global aid fund could lead to 300,000 preventable deaths, say charities

about 13 hours ago
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Ministry of Justice ‘has failed to file spending receipts of nearly £11bn’

about 21 hours ago