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Amid disappointing UK growth, how can Rachel Reeves escape the doom loop?

about 21 hours ago
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Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget is not simple: Britain’s economy is misfiring and things need turning around fast.Yet a fiscal consolidation on the scale the chancellor is expected to require could push in exactly the opposite direction.The latest figures from the economy are hardly encouraging.Growth slowed from 0.3% in the second quarter to just 0.

1% in the third, driven down in part by the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover,It is a potential doom loop scenario,Stronger public finances require a stronger economy,Yet large tax rises and spending cuts on 26 November could further squeeze activity amid an already weak growth outlook,In the City, this has bond market investors worried.

Yet so too does a budget that would not fully cover an expected shortfall of up to £30bn against the chancellor’s self-imposed fiscal rules.Inflation, currently at almost twice the Bank of England’s 2% target, must also be kept under control.With growth weak, and confidence fragile amid budget uncertainty, it is clear the government’s No 1 mission to kickstart growth is in trouble.The economy shrank in September and flatlined in August.Real GDP per head – a key measure of living standards – showed no growth in the latest quarter.

Underlying the weakness are factors that are becoming all too familiar: squeezed consumers struggling with sky-high living costs, weak business investment, and a far from supportive global backdrop amid Donald Trump’s erratic trade wars.In the July to September period consumer-facing services output fell by 0.1%.Despite Labour heralding a pro-business environment – touting billions of pounds of spending committed to Britain at the recent Birmingham regional investment summit – business investment fell by 0.3% in the quarter.

It has only inched up by 0.7% in the past year.Export volumes also fell.Part of the problems for Labour are of its own making.The employers’ national insurance increase in last year’s budget has weighed heavily on hiring and added to costs at a time when companies are grappling with sticky inflation and subdued demand.

Meanwhile, continual speculation over the UK’s fiscal position has added to the reluctance among companies and households to spend.There are, however, some crumbs of comfort.The cyber-attack on JLR was, hopefully, something of a one-off.Output in the car industry collapsed by 28.6% in the third quarter.

Last month, the Bank of England had estimated this would shave about 0.1 percentage points from the quarterly GDP figures.In the end, the figure was bigger: 0.16 percentage points – such is the significance of the UK’s second-biggest car manufacturer to the economy.JLR had to suspend production at its UK factories for several weeks after being targeted by hackers, with the consequences crippling hundreds of smaller firms in its supply chain across the West Midlands.

Here Reeves can argue the government played an important role in promoting economic resilience, after providing a £1,5bn loan guarantee to JLR to help give the company and its suppliers more certainty,The money was, however, untouched, while JLR took its own steps to pay its suppliers upfront,Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionZooming out from the third quarter, a slowdown in the second half of 2025 was anticipated by economists,For several years now the UK has exhibited a strong start to a calendar year, and a weaker finish.

Despite the recent slowdown, the UK still remains the fastest-growing G7 economy apart from the US – a position the International Monetary Fund predicts Britain will cling on to next year.However, the underlying picture is far from rosy.With unemployment at the highest level in four years and inflation likely to have peaked, expectations are mounting for the Bank of England to cut interest rates at its December policy meeting.As much as Britain’s hard-pressed households and businesses, the chancellor will need it amid growing pressure within Labour ranks.Boxed in ahead of the budget, an expansive package of growth-enhancing tax and spending measures is unlikely.

But with the economy in a tight spot, Reeves will need to find a way through this to rebuild confidence when she stands up at the dispatch box on 26 November.
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Scott Barrett fit to return and captain All Blacks against England at Twickenham

Scott Barrett has come back to captain the All Blacks against England at Twickenham this weekendBarrett had 12 stitches threaded in his leg after he sustained a cut beneath his knee playing against Ireland a fortnight ago, and missed his team’s 25-17 victory against Scotland at Murrayfield last week, but Scott Robertson, the New Zealand head coach, confirmed that he had played a full part in training and will be ready for the England game.“We’ve gone for our best team for this game, for this Test,” Robertson said. “It’s remarkable that he healed so well, once you saw the cut. The Barretts must have some good skin.” His older brother Beauden will start at fly-half again, but younger brother Jordie is back in New Zealand having treatment on the ankle injury he suffered in that same match against Ireland

about 13 hours ago
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‘No progress’: county cricket clubs criticised for continued lack of diversity

The 18 first-class counties have been criticised by the England and Wales Cricket Board for failing to make any progress in increasing the ethnic and gender diversity of their senior leadership.The State of Equity in Cricket Report published on Thursday, which was first commissioned in the wake of the Azeem Rafiq racism scandal, shows that minority ethnic and female representation among the county chairs and chief executives has not improved since 2019 despite repeated calls for change from the ECB.Yorkshire’s chief executive, Sanjay Patel, who was previously chief commercial officer at the ECB and managing director of the Hundred, is the only county executive from an ethnically diverse background. Kent’s Krishna Shanmuganathan, who took office earlier this year, is the only minority ethnic chair.Lisa Pursehouse was a longstanding chief executive at Nottinghamshire, but left the club in September, with Emma White hired by Leicestershire the same month

about 15 hours ago
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Ashes injury scare for England with Mark Wood in hospital for scan on hamstring

England endured the most chilling of starts to their Ashes warm-up with a potential injury to Mark Wood meaning the key fast bowler will start the second day of their solitary pre-series fixture in hospital rather than on the pitch.Wood reported “stiffness in his hamstring” at the end of his second four-over spell against the Lions at Lilac Hill and will have a precautionary scan on Friday morning to assess the extent of any damage.England’s plan had been for Wood to bowl eight overs across the opening day against the Lions, a number he reached in the hour after lunch. The 35-year-old immediately left the field and, though sources in the England camp initially put this down to thirst, when he failed to return after tea a more sobering update emerged.This is Wood’s first game of any kind since England’s Champions Trophy match against Afghanistan in Lahore in February

about 16 hours ago
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England reveal Ashes blueprint only for Mark Wood injury scare to threaten ripping it up

Eight days before the curtain rises on the Ashes in the sold-out enormodome that is Perth’s Optus Stadium, England’s campaign began in semi-earnest a few actual kilometres and a million metaphorical miles away in front of a few dozen spectators in leafy, sedate Lilac Hill.What followed was intriguing, at times even encouraging, but for news of a potentially significant injury, and, while Ben Stokes had promised “balls-to-the-wall” action, it was more jaws to the floor as news of Mark Wood’s stiff left hamstring filtered through in mid-afternoon.England had revealed their blueprint for the first Test in naming a lineup featuring five seam options including Stokes himself and no full-time spinner, with Shoaib Bashir relegated to the Lions team. But however carefully it is prepared, sometimes a blueprint is destined to become nothing but shredder-fodder.With Wood’s participation in next Friday’s opening Test now in doubt and Bashir’s suddenly looking more likely, certainty has slipped through English fingers much as a few catches did across a breezy day by the Swan River

about 18 hours ago
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Cameron Green stakes Ashes claim with strong all-round showing in Sheffield Shield

Cameron Green used his final Sheffield Shield hit-out before the Ashes to prove he is ready for England, although whether he bats at No 3 for Australia or plays as an all-rounder remains unresolved a week out from the first Test.The 26-year-old showed he has overcome the side strain suffered last month by bowling eight overs in the second innings at the Waca Ground, on top of another eight in Queensland’s first innings of 390.He may have been wicketless on Thursday, but Green’s bowling load passed the threshold set by chief selector George Bailey of “15 to 20” overs when announcing the squad last week, clearing the path for Green’s selection as Australia’s all-rounder for the showdown at Optus Stadium against England beginning on 21 November.The towering right-hander also reminded selectors he remains an option at No 3 – where he batted earlier this year for the national team – with an accomplished 94 off 172 deliveries against a strong Queensland attack that meant he spent almost the entire day on the field.He was finally dismissed lbw to Michael Neser

about 19 hours ago
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Rugby World Cup ‘heartbreak’ but then ‘a cool feeling’: New Zealand duo Liana Mikaele-Tu’u and Layla Sae’s rollercoaster ride

The Black Ferns pair arrive at Harlequins eager to put semi-final defeat behind them and ‘to see how this side of the world plays’There’s a certain aura that surrounds New Zealand rugby players. Liana Mikaele-Tu’u and Layla Sae have all the athleticism, talent and professionalism that come with being a Black Fern but during a joint interview at Harlequins’ training ground in Surrey, what stands out most is their humility, refreshing honesty and wicked sense of humour.The duo have signed for the Premiership Women’s Rugby (PWR) club until March. Sae, fresh off the plane from New Zealand, could make her debut against Exeter Chiefs on Sunday, while Mikaele-Tu’u already has a few appearances under her belt after joining a few weeks earlier.Part of the attraction of playing in England, they say, is the enthusiasm for women’s sport

about 22 hours ago
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Waymo announces that its robotaxis will drive freeways for the first time

1 day ago
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A tax roadmap for electric cars | Letters

1 day ago
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Tech companies and UK child safety agencies to test AI tools’ ability to create abuse images

2 days ago
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Matthew McConaughey and Michael Caine sign voice deal with AI company

2 days ago
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John Tymukas obituary

3 days ago
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ChatGPT violated copyright law by ‘learning’ from song lyrics, German court rules

3 days ago